安踏體育(02020.HK)：忽略短期波動，聚焦長期運營能力，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
安踏主品牌增速低於預期：零售流水單四季度同比增長低單位數，全年同比增長中單位數。公司主品牌單四季度流水低於預期主要系集中精力處理庫存，導致 Q4 線下流水負增長、零售折扣同比下降 2-3 個點至 7 折。但目前公司庫銷比略超 5（線上、線下、物流中心 3 個部分的總體庫銷比略超 6，前兩季為 7 以上）、且售罄率同比提升 9 個點。管理層預期 21 年安踏主品牌流水增長 10%+，精力仍然集中在庫存去化和直營店整合上。 ? FILA 增速符合預期：零售流水單四季度同比增長 25%-30%，全年同比增長中單位數。FILA 目前店效已超疫情前水平，庫銷比降至 6 左右。目前仍有一定折扣，正價店折扣為 83-84。FILA 有望繼續成為公司業績增長的主要引擎，管理層預期 21 年 FILA 流水同比增長 20%+。
其他品牌增速超預期：零售流水單四季度同比增長 55%-60%，全年同比增長 35%-40%。其中迪桑特同比增長 80%+、Kolon 同比增長30%-40%。迪桑特是高增長的主因，2020 年全年流水超 16 億元。
忽略短期波動，聚焦長期運營能力。雖然短期以庫存去化為主，業績增速規劃保守，但公司的渠道管理模式扁平、業務人員的執行效率高，運營護城河深厚。目前一階段的主品牌直營回收計劃已完成 82%，我們看好轉直營店面在庫存去化完成後，順利實現盈利能力改善。
20-22 年業績分別為 1.88 元/股、2.71 元/股、3.37 元/股。預計公司2020-2022 年收入分別達 359.7/431.5/516.4 億元，分別同比增長6.0%/20.0%/19.7%；預計歸母淨利潤分別達 51.0/73.3/91.1 億元，分別同比增長-4.7%/43.8%/24.3%。給予公司 2021 年 45 倍 PE，人民幣港幣匯率取 0.8337，對應合理價值 146.27 港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。FILA 增速明顯放緩、Amer 海外業務利潤低於預期等。
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