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中國建材(03323.HK):更低的估值和更好的成長,板塊優選,維持“買入”評級,目標價 15.88 港元
格隆匯 01-21 16:32

機構:興業證券

評級:買入

目標價:15.88 港元

資要點

2020 年,全國水泥累計產量 23.77 億噸,同比增 1.6%,水泥需求仍維持在較高的平台期水平,期間水泥價格跟隨季節波動,雖無深 V 反彈但整體平穩的價格也側面印證了水泥行業競爭格局牢固且不易被外界打破。

中國建材當下仍是水泥板塊中具備α屬性的深度價值股,α屬性主要來自一加一減兩項:骨料業務的快速發展、甩清歷史包袱後的成本節省、撥備節省、財務節省。

1) 西南水泥、中聯水泥近期多處拍得骨料礦權,骨料業務正在開啟新的業務增長點,公司計劃 3-5 年內向年產 3 億噸骨料看齊,遠期利潤可達 60億。 2) 據不完全統計,中國建材已規劃的產能置換列表不少於 34 條,佔總產能的 15%以上,新投生產線各項技術指標優異,並打通了從熟料到水泥、從礦山到中轉站再到碼頭的“無縫連接”,持續開展的產能置換幫助中國建材甩清歷史包袱,對成本節省、撥備節省、財務節省都有幫助。

2020Q4 水泥價格並未達到2019 年同期水平,我們下調 2020 和 2021 年盈利預測,預計公司 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤分別為 139 億、163 億和 186 億元,中國建材當前股價(2021.1.19)對應 2021 年 PE 僅 4.6 倍,低於同行 6.5 倍左右的估值,我們認為中國建材具備更好的成長性和更低的估值,維持目標價 15.88 港元和“買入”評級。

風險提示:經濟惡化;協同破裂;原材料價格大幅波動;海外業務風險。

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