開工端強勁,中國聯塑(2128.HK)還有50%上漲空間
聯塑經過一波回調之後,現在股價處於底部區域,估值12X PE;市場擔心今年下半年原材料成本上升會導致利潤增速下滑;同時開工和投資端增速迅猛,公司的業績快速增長具有一定的確定性。
規模優勢下的成本優勢
公司作為全國最大的塑料管道生產商,在生產規模和區域佈局上領先行業。目前公司的規模領先,正轉化成渠道週轉與終端產品性價比的具體競爭優勢,從而幫助公司進一步拓展市場的份額,並留存更為可觀的利潤。
聯塑管道業務超過60%的營收來自於經銷商渠道。公司渠道的高週轉特徵受益於公司的規模優勢。一方面,公司資金實力帶來的授信,幫助經銷商減少資金的使用,加速業務週轉,公司作為行業規模最大企業具備天然的成本優勢。
另一方面,一般而言影響經銷商周轉的最主要因素在於必要庫存的多少。目前公司在國內18 個省份已有或在建生產基地,佈局以物流最優覆蓋為準則,核心市場渠道體系可以實現下單24 小時提貨。因此經銷商必要庫存低,成為渠道高週轉的必要條件。
同時隨着各品類渠道的利潤率逐漸走低,週轉率成為各品牌渠道競爭的關鍵。中國聯塑的規模優勢帶來的高週轉優勢,正幫助渠道快速積累資金實力,並擠壓佔據小品牌生存空間,是進一步佔據市場的基礎。
確定性的增長空間
根據行業統計的數據,,2020 年中國塑料管道市場合計約1600 萬噸,以2019 年公司約240 萬噸的銷量來計算,目前市佔率約15%左右,位列行業第一,尚有較大的拓展空間。公司業務增長確定性高,主要在於尚有較為明顯的市場空間可拓展:地域空間,基建空間,地產空間均較為顯著。
目前公司的市場一半都在華南地區,在江西,福建和廣西三個重要省份還沒有完整的產能佈局,未來都會補充生產基地,提升當地的市場份額,產能提升確保了公司的成長性。
管材的產品系列分為三種:PVC,PE,和PPR管材;大口徑是PVC一般開工和施工端,後兩種的小口徑管材一般用於竣工端。目前PVC管材聯塑大概佔比76%,永高佔比48%,偉星佔比15%;2020年房地產的投資增速是7%,同時看做防水材料的東方雨虹和科順這類公司的業績增速超預期,面向開工端的聯塑業績增速也有確定性。
聯塑的股價回調是市場過度悲觀,擔心原材料成本上升對公司的業績形成壓制。但是公司作為行業龍頭,擁有近300億的銷售規模,在成本控制方面就擁有規模優勢,加上強大的經銷渠道和信用體系加快了產品週轉率,也控制了費用率的上升。
目前公司估值12倍,同類可比公司估值在15倍左右,同時加上行業處於景氣週期當中,400億左右估值明顯被低估。
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