植耀輝: 港股升勢似未盡 北水進場波動難免
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，借用投資大師Peter Lynch的雞尾酒會理論去描述現時大市的情況可謂相當貼切：在第一階段，當出席酒會時，大家會先互相結識一番，而當Lynch告訴別人從事基金管理工作時，大家不感興趣，甚至寧願跟牙醫討論牙齒保健問題也不理睬Lynch；到第二階段時，大家會有興趣了解多一點投資市場，但仍不會太在意股份表現。
到第三階段，投資者不再理會牙醫了，反而不斷詢問Lynch「心水」，就連牙醫也湊熱鬧似的一併討論股票。到最後階段，大家同樣談股市，但今次卻不是詢問Lynch，而是向他推介自己心水，就連街坊也像「股神」上身，將自己心得「傾囊相授」─這個時候，就是股市最亢奮之時，亦恐怕是股市即將大跌的先兆矣!
那現時港股究竟是那個階段呢?筆者認為雖然投資氣氛開始變得熾熱，但仍未去到全民皆股階段，故較傾向現時約處於第三階段，不過確實越來越多「新手」被投資市場吸引而進場，尤其是較年輕的一群。他們除了會孖展認購新股外，部分亦會炒賣美股(如Tesla及ARKK)及港股(如比亞迪(01211.HK)或思摩爾(06969.HK))。筆者認為年輕人進取一點未嘗不可，但切記被勝利沖昏頭腦，以及無論如何，一定要有止蝕概念。因為升市之中個個是贏家，惟一旦市況逆轉，如何能理智地作出相應部署，才是最大的考驗!
不過談及本輪升市，亦一定要提到北水威力。受美國「黑名單」制裁影響，部分個股如中移動(00941.HK)及中芯(00981.HK)一度遭基金拋售，惟在北水大手吸納下，相關股份股價不跌反升，而且北水湧港之規模不斷增加之餘，口味亦越來越多元化。截至昨日(19日)，南下資金已連續20個交易日出現淨買入，而且更是連續第12個交易日淨買入金額超過100億元，由年初至今南下資金淨流入累積已達到約1,853億元。
在北水湧港的同時，筆者亦發現內地有不少文章及報告「唱好」港股。大部分的論點，離不開相比A股現時估值，港股顯得相當吸引，而人民幣升值令以港元計價之港股「更加抵」；另外亦有提到中概股第二上市令基金能有更多投資新經濟股份機會。
不過其中一種看法較令筆者在意的是在南下資金持續增加下，港股定價權未來將從外資轉移至內資的看法。這情況是港股通開通後其中一個必然會發生之現象，只是隨著美國「黑名單」的出現，令步伐進一步加快而已。截至本周一(18日)為止，北水持股量超過兩成之股份數量便有69隻，持股量超過15%之股份數量則達到108隻。這批股份部分是與A股呈大折讓之H股，其餘則是當炒內需股或新經濟股。可以預期，未來北水持續流入，對港股交投及氣氛應屬正面，不過隨之而來卻可能出現「A股化」現象，波動性亦無可避免增加，所以投資者亦可能要重新適應此「新常態」矣!
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)~
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