思考樂教育(01769.HK)：疫情致2020業績承壓，寒假報讀增長亮眼，維持“增持”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：增持
事件：預計2020年經調整淨利潤不低於8000萬元。公司發佈盈利預吿，預計2020年營收同增約5%（至約7.47億元），預計歸母淨利潤4800-5500萬元，經調整淨利潤不低於8000萬元。
疫情期間提供優惠活動疊加新學習中心處於爬坡期，2020毛利潤承壓。公司2020年利潤端同比下滑主要系：1）2020年為應對疫情向學生提供折扣及優惠，致使平均課時收費同降10%；2）2019及2020年新開設學習中心46及52所，仍處於爬坡期，貢獻收入有限而成本項目相對剛性，致毛利潤下降。另一方面，得益於優惠活動及網點擴張，公司2020下半年提供輔導課時數同增約28%（至約630萬課時）。
2021寒假班運營情況：報讀人次增長亮眼，學習中心進一步擴張。公司2020下半年新增學習中心25所，於2021寒假招生投入運營。根據公司公開電話會議披露，截至2021年1月15日，公司冬季學期報讀學生人次同比增長約40%；收款方面，深圳同增約15%、佛山/東莞/惠州同增100%/50%/40%以上，深圳外圍城市增長亮眼。此外，公司在寒假前於廣州新增7所學習中心，預報名超3萬科，並在寒假前進軍珠海、茂名、蘇州及寧波，進一步深化廣東省內佈局的同時，正式啟動省外運營。
強化精細化運營，優化教學質量及品牌口碑。公司2019-2020年新建學習中心尚處於爬坡期，2021年有望平衡新學習中心開設進度，強化精細化運營，優化公司的師資配臵。教師招聘及培訓方面，公司着重優化教學質量，持續強化與高校合作招聘優質人才，深圳第二總部已於近日落地，定位研發基地及師訓基地。課程研發方面，公司有望持續強化分層教學，將高端鴻盟課程體系應用於新分校，着重打造優質品牌口碑。”
投資建議。公司作為華南地區K12課外培訓區域龍頭，深耕廣東省市場並在此基礎上進軍長三角市場，強化精細化運營增長可期。根據盈利預吿，我們調整公司2020-2022年經調整淨利潤預測至0.80/1.38/1.98億元（原預測歸母淨利潤1.66/2.33/3.16億元），同增-41.3%/73.0%/43.4%，對應EPS0.14/0.25/0.36元，現價對應PE82X/47X/33X，維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：疫情復發風險；擴張過程中盈利能力不及預期；新教學模式拓展風險；監管政策收緊；行業競爭加劇。
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