思摩爾國際(06969.HK)：十問十答思摩爾國際，高景氣賽道的高壁壘龍頭，維持“增持”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：增持
核心觀點：
霧化陶瓷芯賽道景氣度高。①新型煙草滲透率提升。特別國內市場發 展空間大（滲透率 1%對比英國 50%），品牌商跑馬圈地。②霧化芯是重要環節，其中陶瓷芯體驗好，新客户接受度高，有替代棉芯趨勢。
思摩爾技術壁壘深厚。①思摩爾技術優勢顯著。產品口感好、還原度高；且一致性強，良品率高。主要因細節 know-how 掌握更好，根源在思摩爾戰略眼光（較早重視研發）、試錯基數（反饋規模大、同客户改 進產品），研發投入（20H1 研發費用佔收入 5.1%）。②結合外部因素，客户粘性加深。內銷龍頭擴張期需要產品供應穩定，海外客户對思摩爾專利存在依賴，疊加重金申請 PMTA 時供應商是考核要素。
短期看，思摩爾有望高增。①國內客户快速增長。悦刻是市佔率 63%的第一龍頭，20Q1-3 收入同比增 93%；柚子 H2 加速跑馬圈地，明年內銷龍頭有望高速增長。②海外客户有望回暖。口味煙等政策禁令使除 Juul 以外龍頭份額提升，英美煙草營銷拓展最積極而增速最高，明年趨勢將維持，其他龍頭預計也有恢復性增長，且 PMTA 政策催化集中度提升。③其他業務今年表現較弱，未來 APV 預計平穩增長，CBD 與 HNB 業務存在向上彈性，整體收入有望維持高增。 ? 長期看，思摩爾空間廣闊。①收入端，新型煙草滲透率提升空間大（特別是中國），思摩爾有望憑技術壁壘實現份額提升。②盈利端，30%+淨利率有向下可能，但自動化生產和供應鏈梳理可消化盈利壓力。
盈利預測與投資建議。預計 20~22 年公司收入 105/152/203 億元，同比增長 38%/44%/34%；歸母淨利同比增長 61%/47%/34%。參考可比公司 PE 和公司業績增速，給予思摩爾 21 年 65 倍 PE 合理估值，對應合理價值 68.91 港元/股（使用港幣匯率 0.83），維持“增持”評級。
風險提示。市場接受度不足，政策不確定性，技術專利風險
（本文除特殊註明外，使用貨幣均為人民幣）
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