安踏體育(02020.HK)：出售 Precor，户外品牌矩陣精簡化，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
出售健身器械品牌Precor，户外品牌矩陣精簡化。Amer Sports向Peloton出售旗下的健身器械品牌Precor，作價4.2億美元。本次交易預計於2021Q1完成，並貢獻2000萬美元收益（不含税及交易成本）。這部分收益將以安踏體育52.70%持有Amer Sports的比例貢獻到安踏2021年財報，對2020年無影響，公司保持2020下半年Amer能盈利的判斷不變，全年報表端投資收益虧損相比H1會收窄。此外，本次交易預計為Amer Sports帶來3.6億美元的淨現金（扣税、交易成本後），有利於Amer Sports聚焦於“大品牌、大渠道、大國家”戰略，為始祖鳥、Solomon、Wilson三大核心品牌在中國的直營門店開拓戰略提供資金支持。我們認為未來公司可能會進一步剝離非主要品牌，強化品牌矩陣的聚焦能力。
收購鋭步的短期可能性低。我們認為短期收購鋭步的可能性較低。（1）收購鋭步財務代價高；（2）公司目前的重心在於專業、時尚、户外三足鼎立且價位不斷拔高，目前的品牌矩陣已能充分滿足公司的戰略需求；（3）公司目前在安踏、FILA、迪桑特、可隆、始祖鳥、Salomon、Wilson上都需強將統領，很難有精力再去管理一個重要品牌。
20-22年業績分別為1.89元/股、2.74元/股、3.43元/股。預計公司2020-2022年收入分別達359.6/431.5/516.4億元，分別同比增長6.0%/20.0%/19.7%；預計歸母淨利潤分別達51.1/74.0/92.8億元，分別同比增長-4.4%/44.9%/25.4%。參考可比公司2021年PE平均值為43.14x（剔除異常值露露檸檬）。給予公司2021年45倍PE，人民幣港幣匯率取0.8337，對應合理價值147.83港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。FILA增速明顯放緩、Amer海外業務利潤低於預期等。
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