安踏體育(02020.HK)：零售端逐季改善，主品牌DTC順利推進，維持“買入”評級，目標價139港元
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
目標價：139港元
核心觀點
安踏體育發佈 20Q4 及全年經營（零售端）表現，從 Q4 來看，安踏/FILA/其他品牌流水分別實現低單/25%-30%/55%-60%正增長，從全年來看，安踏/FILA/其他品牌流水分別實現中單負增長/中雙正增長/35%-40%正增長。
安踏主品牌庫存和售罄率環比改善，DTC 推進順利。安踏品牌 Q4 流水同比實現低單正增長，其中安踏大貨和兒童流水均為低單位數，但是線下整體流水仍未轉正，主要原因為：1）受疫情影響，公司將部分 Q1 訂單轉移至 Q3 和 Q4 銷售；2）零售折扣同比有所增加，約 2-3 個點左右。但是另一方面，庫存和售罄率指標均有所好轉，Q4 線下庫銷比略超 5，已完成年初目標，售罄率同比改善約 9 個點。此外，DTC 變革推進順利，截至 2020 年底已完成82%，預計 2021Q1 將全部完成。
FILA 流水增長環比繼續提速。FILA 品牌 Q4 流水同比實現 25-30%增長，相比 Q3 同比 20-25%增長環比提速，拆分來看，FILA 大貨/潮牌/兒童分別實現中雙/50%+/20%+增長。Q4 線下庫銷比約為 6+，同樣環比改善，此外Q4 的店效水平已高於疫情前的 2019 年同期，以 FILA 大貨為例，平均月店效已超過 100 萬。Amer Sports 下半年表現符合預期，2020H2 已開始貢獻利潤，其他品牌中迪桑特和可隆仍然維持高增，Q4 分別實現 80%+和 30-40%的正增長，有望在未來成為公司新的增長動能。
展望 2021 年，在國內外疫情仍有不確定性的背景下，我們繼續看好安踏作為行業龍頭的增長韌性，預計全年安踏和 FILA 流水將分別實現雙位數和20%+的增長。淨利率方面，安踏批發業務有望恢復至 2019 年水平，安踏零售業務（DTC）有望維持在低單位數水平。迪桑特、可隆等品牌仍然有快速增長的空間。
財務預測與投資建議
根據四季度運營數據，我們微調公司未來三年的盈利預測，預計公司 2020-2022 年每股收益分別為 1.97 元、2.73 元和 3.35 元（原 1.94、2.77 和 3.46元），參考可比公司估值，給予公司 2021 年 43 倍的 PE，對應目標價 139港幣（117.4 人民幣），維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：國內外疫情的反覆，回收經銷商帶來的短期業績波動。
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