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《大行報告》高盛:港交所(00388.HK)股價已反映最高績效預期 評級「沽售」
阿思達克 01-15 10:27
高盛發表研究報告,指港交所(00388.HK)股價已反映最高績效預期,其估值升至歷史新高,相當於去年預測市盈率50倍,受惠交投量勝預期,相信是與一些內地企業自美國退市有關。同時,以現價計,目前估值媲美2015年初期股市泡沫時,該行升港交所2020至2022年每股盈利預期分別0.4%、6.8%及6.1%,並首次預測2023年每股盈利12.13元,目標價由345元上調至380元,評級「沽售」;並認為市場看法過分進取,未考慮中港股市歷史周期性因素。

該行指出,現時與當時的情況不同之處,包括中概股回歸的趨勢、南向資金流入更活躍等,但現時公司經營仍如當年一樣受周期性影響,特別是證券相關收入佔比擴大,而商品業務表現相對較弱的情況下,維持看淡公司未來12個月看法,傾向建議投資銀行股。

該行表示,參考以往下行同期,在經濟復甦時,港交所的表現會跑輸銀行,但看好港交所中期盈利增長,但相信目前已於現價中過度反映,反而銀行股大多估值較低。

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