京東 (JD)／ 京東集團 - SW(09618.HK) 4Q20前瞻：加大投入，規模優先，給予“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點
MAU、DAU、雙十一大促均有良好表現，預期收入端增長 31.5%。（1）用户端參考 QM 數據，10-11 月 MAU 同比增長 8188/9360 萬，DAU同比增長 2512/3288 萬，增長均處於加速上升通道，判斷京東仍在持續捕獲下沉市場用户基數紅利。（2）2020 年雙十一活動期間銷售增長32.8%，同比 2019 年提速 4.9pp；2020 年因主流手機廠商新機發售推遲，Q4 消費電子或有較好的同比增速表現。（3）考慮疫情反覆等影響，線上快消購買需求仍然旺盛，京東快消有望延續高增長；社區團購衝擊其他各類渠道的背景下，京東提供的商品、服務及面向的受眾與社區團購重合度相對較低，暫時不必過於擔憂需求分流。
前三季度已釋放較多利潤，或加大促銷、新業務新技術等方面的投入力度，預期 Q4 non-GAAP 利潤率約 0.8%（對應 17.8 億元），對應全 年 2.2%、同比提升 0.31pp。Q4 良好的用户表現或隱含一定的營銷投入增長，且疫情影響尚未完全消除，履約成本難以快速下降（人力及路線成本較高、快消配送量大）。Q4 京東正式入局社區團購，先後投資興盛優選和地利生鮮（擁有 5 大農批物流園），以供應鏈為切入點； 在持續嘗試生鮮的多場景銷售後，於 21 年元旦上線京喜拼拼（1 月 9日已開 16 城）。作為後來者 ，京東具備完整的中心倉-服務站履約體系、冷鏈物流基礎設施，擁有全品類供應鏈資源，可通過微信小程序完成交易閉環，同樣有機會在行業紅利中分一杯羹、拓展用户邊界。
盈利預期與投資建議：預計 2020-2022 年京東營業收入分別為7460/9124/10942 億 RMB，non-GAAP 歸母淨利潤 162/218/327 億RMB。我們認為，京東估值中樞的持續抬升源於用户規模擴張、新業務開拓帶來的長期發展空間高於原有預期，且這一趨勢仍在延續。給予商城業務 1.2X PS、物流業務 2X PS 估值，疊加數科價值，給予合理價值美股 115.86 美元/ADS、港股 449.19 港元/股。
風險提示：用户增長、GMV 增速低於預期；新業務拓展過多拖累利潤；社區團購衝擊 B2C 電商行業。
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