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《大行报告》中金:中海油(00883.HK)近三月跑输国际同业四成 供长线买入机会
阿思达克 01-13 11:37
中金近日发表报告表示,近两周从港股通的流向来看,资金更多的从中石化(00386.HK)流入中海油(0883.HK),中海油看到明显南下资金的增持。同时,近期来自指数调整等方面的风险虽然并不能完全排除,但是相较一个月之前,风险因素降低了不少。从最近三个月来看,对比国际同行,中海油股价平均跑输43.3%,在疫苗逐步推广,全球需求复苏的背景下,市场对於今年油价预期较过去一个季度变得更为乐观,该行认为股价被市场低估,是良好的长线基金入场的机会。

该行指,维持中海油2020年盈利预测不变,考虑到2021年更乐观的油价假设,上调对其2021年每股盈利预测27%至1.01元人民币,并引入2022年每股盈利预测1.12元人民币。基於自由现金流估值法,中金维持中海油目标价10.3港元,较当前股价存在45%上行空间,对应2021年市净率0.9倍,维持「跑赢行业」评级。

中金预计中海油2020财年每桶油当量成本可以控制在27美元/桶当量左右,同时,在结构性降本提效和油价回升的带动下,该行预计2021财年完全成本涨幅有限,在成本控制上有望继续超出市场的预期。

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