植耀輝: 拆解雅迪(01585.HK)長升原因
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，汽車股近月走勢之強令投資者相當驚訝，佼佼者當然是Tesla(TSLA.US)，去年至今累積升幅達到870%；本地電動車概念股比亞迪(01211.HK)亦有極佳表現，累升554%，但以升幅計原來雅迪控股(01585.HK)表現更佳，其股價自去年至今累升達810%，市值亦已達到531.3億元。不過其吸引筆者「眼球」之原因，在於上周即使有股東大折讓減持股份之消息，但股價當時未見影響，股價更不跌反升，加上去年表現如此驚人，值得去研究一下。
先跟各位介紹雅迪業務。該公司主要從事電動車及相關配件開發、製造及銷售，單看業務可能大家已知其炒作原因在於「電動車」三隻字，不過事實上雅迪生產之電動車與大家想像如比亞迪所生產之種類不同，屬於雙輪電動踏板車及電動自行車而已。儘管如此，但近年相關範疇亦受惠國策因素。內地於2019年4月宣布《電動自行車全安技術規範》，新標準對車速、重量、外形、電池、電池等關鍵指標均有嚴格規定，不符合規定之電動自行車均不得銷售。據內地研究機構統計，2019年內地電動自行車數量達到3億輛，新規定所帶來之換車潮數量將至少達1億輛。
在此背景下，雅迪便成為其中一間最受惠公司。在新規範出台下，市場參與者由過往1,000多家減少至現時700家左右；而雅迪在內地電動雙輪車市場份額位居首位，市佔率約16.7%；集團近年業績亦相當不俗，2016至2019年營收由66.62億增至119.68億元人民幣。去年上半年收入更同比急升87.5%。所以雅迪炒上，除「電動車」概念外，亦有其自身的一些「賣點」。另外，北水過往亦時有炒作，值得一提的是，市佔率僅次於雅迪之愛瑪科技亦即將於A股登場，這亦成為短期炒作之部分原因。
雖然行業前景似乎有不少憧憬，但亦非全無隱憂。無疑新標準令入門門檻有所提高，「高端化」亦是近年業界之共同口號，不過消費者仍傾向「價廉物美」，價格才是最重要之考慮；而且，由於各品牌產品差異性不明顯，故不惜豪擲重金於宣傳上，雅迪便曾邀請電影「狂野時速」系列之男演員Vin Diesel作為全球品牌形象大使。所以相關產業利潤率一向偏低，雅迪去年上半年毛利率及純利率便分別只得18.2%及5.1%。
另一挑戰則來自共享概念。去年哈囉出行、青桔及美團(03690.HK)三大共享單車品牌均加大力度於共享電單車上，某程度上亦會降低消費者購買電動車意欲。
所以筆者結論是，雅迪股價過去一年急升有其原因，不過行業前景似乎有相當變數之餘，早前股東高位減持亦應抱一定戒心，加上Tesla股價近期有所轉弱，故暫不建議大家高追。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)~
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