《大行報告》美銀證券:物管股首選碧桂園服務(06098.HK)及融創服務(01516.HK)
美銀證券發表的研究報告指,住建部等十部門聯合印發《關於加強和改進住宅物業管理工作的通知》、鼓勵物管公司擴大增值服務領域等後,物管股升勢強勁,該行相信政策細節等或將出台,並有機會以優惠稅率及補貼等的形式,認為物管企業的盈利有上行空間,並存在重估機遇,特別是具規模及資源行業龍頭有望可擴張增值服務,另外亦可打入第三方項目市場,將碧桂園服務(06098.HK)目標價升15%至67元,並將其2021至2022財年盈利預測升4%至5%,首選為融創服務(01516.HK)及碧桂園服務;予融創服務目標價24元。
該行留意到相關通知鼓勵成立業主組織,現時全國僅少數項目擁業主組織,大部分位於經濟較發達的地區如上海等,而鼓勵設立意味質素較低的物管公司續約收費將較低,而對於管理較好的項目物業管理收費有望增加,所以品牌較強、之前發展較依賴母公司項目的物管企業將有來自第三方的增長空間。
雖然通知中部分政策非新事物,不過相信現時其重要性有所提升。另一方面政策或會為物管企業擴展O2O平台及社區增值服務有幫助,特別是老人、幼兒護理及醫療健康服務等,留意到部分由物管公司推出的家務服務亦可享增值稅優惠,估計未來有機會擴展至其他服務。
值得留意的是通知有提及推廣以佣金為基礎的物管合約,假如獲廣泛採納將反映毛利率及股本回報率提升,不過有機會降低收入及盈利增長。不過該行認為佣金為本的合約短期內不會廣泛採納,因為這樣的合約下每項決定都要涉及業主代表,或不太實際可行。總體而言該行認為物管公司只會在進入成熟階段或盈利能力開始下降,才會存在誘因轉向佣金制。
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