波司登(03998.HK)2021財年前三季度經營數據點評：龍頭韌性凸顯，經營持續改善，維持“買入”評級
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
波司登公佈2021財年前三季度運營情況，其中波司登主品牌零售額同比增長25%+，其他羽絨服品牌零售額同比增長40%+。在疫情衝擊下仍然交出靚麗答卷，體現在產品與品牌的高端化、年輕化升級上成效顯著，營銷與渠道等方面改革持續推進，有望持續提升品牌勢能，不斷強化自身優勢。目前股價對應2021/2022財年PE分別為23/18倍，建議積極配置，維持“買入”評級。
經營回顧：零售恢復順利，前三季度表現靚麗。公司公佈2021財年前三季度運營情況，其中波司登主品牌零售額同比增長25%+，其他羽絨服品牌零售額同比增長40%+。相比2021財年中報的主品牌/其他品牌的20%/3%營收增速，第三財季進一步加速增長。
短期展望：“雙十二”進一步增長提速，冷冬+春節較晚等利好因素助推2020-2021冬季表現。2020年10月以來，公司庫存恢復順利，終端流水進入加速改善期。波司登羽絨服業務在2020年“雙十一”中線上零售額增長超過35%，波司登主品牌增長超過25%，繼續蟬聯服飾行業第二名和中國服飾品牌第一名。“雙十二”中波司登進一步領跑，線上零售額增長超過42%。在冷冬、春節時間較晚等多重利好因素助推下，預計公司2020-2021冬季有望延續高增長。
長期展望：產品與品牌升級延續，公司有望不斷強化自身優勢。公司持續推進產品高端化升級，推出城市户外系列、時尚運動系列、高緹耶聯名系列等。同時公司持續挖掘波司登“羽絨服代名詞”品牌價值，不斷提升品牌勢能，推動品牌高端升級。在營銷與渠道上，公司藉助互聯網平台的數據幫助進行新零售運營，實現對消費人羣的精準觸及。我們認為，公司作為優秀國產品牌的代表，有望持續提升品牌勢能，不斷強化自身優勢，在羽絨服行業獲取更高的市場份額。
風險因素：氣候變暖的風險；疫情反覆的風險；消費者對品牌塑造的認可程度不及預期等。
投資建議：公司羽絨服業務在疫情衝擊下仍然保持穩健增長，冷冬+春節較晚等利好因素有望助推公司2020-2021冬季表現，伴隨着公司產品/品牌/營銷/渠道的不斷升級，公司有望不斷強化自身優勢。因此維持2021財年EPS預測為0.15元，上調2022~2023財年EPS預測至0.19/0.23元（原預測為0.18/0.22元）。目前股價對應2021/2022財年PE分別為23/18倍，建議積極配置，維持“買入”評級。
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