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寶尊電商-SW(09991.HK):電商代運營巨頭再次揚帆起航,給予“買入”評級,目標價114港幣
格隆匯 12-31 09:41

機構:東方證券

評級:買入

目標價:114港幣

核心觀點

寶尊電商是國內規模最大的綜合型代運營巨頭,公司2006年創立於上海,2015年在美國納斯達克上市,2020年在香港二次上市,目前公司覆蓋8個垂直行業,服務超過250個全球品牌。根據艾瑞數據,2019年公司在電商服務行業市佔率達7.9%(GMV口徑),穩居行業第一,公司也是天貓為數不多的六星合作伙伴之一。

股價覆盤:疫情後估值處於歷史低位,未來估值和市值提升空間大。公司美股上市之後股價和估值持續攀升,至2018H2到達頂點,隨後由於GMV增速下滑股價有所調整,2019年是公司的調整優化年,估值水平有所回升。2020年後由於19年底一次性損失+疫情影響,公司股價受到壓制。我們認為,隨着GMV提速+規模效應和管理優化帶動的利潤率提升,公司估值和市值有較大向上彈性。

我們認為寶尊是代運營行業最優質投資標的之一,主要基於四點原因:

1)真正具備跨品類一站式運營能力的稀缺標的,業務複製能力強。目前業務涵蓋IT解決方案、店鋪運營、數字營銷、客户服務、倉儲物流等5大服務內容,通過標準化運營,寶尊真正實現跨品類的經營,在多項細分品類排名靠前,行業中稀缺性較強;

2)數字化系統和倉儲物流運營遙遙領先,護城河深。寶尊非常重視IT技術和倉儲物流的發展,更好地支持公司全鏈路的服務策略,增強客户粘性。2019年起,公司內部設立ESG(電商事業羣)、TIC(科技創新中心)和LSG(物流倉儲事業羣)三大事業羣,首次將IT系統和物流倉儲提升至公司戰略層面;

3)未來增長點明確:國內品牌+FMCG/奢侈品類+微信小程序。2019年公司先後成立BOC(商業運營中心)和GBO(新鋭運營中心),挖掘潛在市場機會。

4)規模效應仍將延續,淨利率有望繼續提升。伴隨GMV的快速擴張和系統化優勢的逐步釋放,我們認為銷售費用、技術和內容開支的費用率有改善空間,未來公司規模效應將提速,淨利率有望繼續得到提升。財務預測與投資建議

我們預測公司2020-2022年的每股收益分別為1.88元、2.67元和3.75元,參考可比公司估值,同時考慮公司2021年更高的成長性,給予公司20%的溢價,對應2021年PE為36倍,對應目標價為114港幣(96.1人民幣),首次給予公司“買入”評級。

風險提示:行業競爭加劇,現有客户流失,天貓平台增速大幅放緩,其他電商平台分流的風險

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