化工行業：國內LNG價格先漲後跌，有機硅價格回落，維持“強大於市”評級
機構：萬聯證券
評級：強大於市
上週市場回顧：
上週中信行業指數中，基礎化工板塊上漲0.60%，同期滬深300上漲0.84%，基礎化工板塊同期落後大盤0.24個百分點。石油石化板塊上漲10.15%,同期領先大盤9.31個百分點。其中,東方材料（49.87%）、金博股份（44.27%）、金力泰（20.97%）、多氟多（17.88%）、銀禧科技（17.34%）位列漲幅前五；跌幅前五分別是：蘇州龍傑（-38.94%）、南嶺民爆（-29.24%）、嘉澳環保（-21.51%）、湖南海利（-20.92%）、碳元科技（-18.82%）。
行業核心觀點：
液化天然氣：上週國內LNG價格先漲後跌。據百川數據顯示，截至12月24日，LNG價格指數7670元/噸，7日環比增加13.92%。進入冬季以來，居民採暖需求不斷提升，疊加國內多家液化工廠停機或減產，開工率一路下滑，國內多地區LNG市場供應緊張，開啟大幅漲價模式。但隨着上游管道氣量有所回升，進口氣船到站數量增加，同時部分地區由於環保檢查以及污染預警二級相應，下游工廠陸續停產限產，LNG價格迴歸理性，開始下行。我們預計短期國內LNG價格將以震盪下行為主，建議關注國內相關企業動態以及LNG需求變化情況。
有機硅：上週國內有機硅市場價格大幅回落。據生意社數據顯示，截至12月25日，有機硅DMC市場報價均價參考在22666元/噸，與前一日價格相比下調6333元/噸，日跌幅21.84%；與月初價格相比，均價下調10677元/噸，跌幅32%。供應方面，上週周內部分有機硅工廠多次下調DMC出廠價格，其餘廠商也隨之讓利出貨，陸續下調報價。需求方面，前期持續近兩個月的高價讓下游業者牴觸心理強烈，隨着有機硅價格的大跌，下游新訂單已經開始陸續跟進。目前國內有機硅DMC價格已跌至相對低位，我們預計短期國內有機硅價格下跌空間有限，將維持穩定運行，建議關注市場訂單成交情況及相關龍頭企業動態。
投資建議：我們建議關注2條主線：1.順週期階段下價格及景氣度持續上漲的傳統化工品及相關龍頭企業；2.具有政策支撐的國產替代相關的新材料板塊，如碳纖維、涉及5G、半導體產業鏈的相關新材料。
風險因素：海外疫情嚴重、國內部分地區疫情二次抬頭、液化天然氣下游需求不及預期、有機硅價格持續震盪。
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