銀行理財產品:理財預期收益率温和上行,維持“推薦”評級
機構:興業證券
評級:推薦
投資要點
理財產品淨值波動情況
l本週淨值數據有效的產品數量為2,128只,淨值增長率均大多處於0-0.5%區間。其中披露前1日淨值產品數量為613只,淨值相對前期下跌的產品數量為43只,淨值增長率中位數為0.01%;披露前1周產品淨值數量為1,515只,淨值相對前期下跌的產品數量為215只,淨值增長率中位數為0.08%。
理財子開業與產品發行概況
公司維度:截至2020年12月23日,已有22家理財子獲批成立、19家理財子正式開業。理財子目前處於存續期和在售期階段的理財產品合計共有2,838只,其中工銀理財、建信理財、中銀理財、交銀理財產品發行數量排在前四位,分別為825只、416只、381只、381只。
產品維度:目前理財子發行的理財產品投資期限以6-12月、1-3年、3年及以上為主,分別為506只、1,504只、322只;投資性質以固定收益類(2,213只)為主;運作模式以封閉式淨值型為主;風險等級以中級為主。
發行市場概況
人民幣理財產品預期收益率:相較於前一週,1周、2周、2個月、3個月、6個月、9個月和1年理財產品預期收益率上升,1個月和4個月理財產品預期收益率下跌。相較於前一週,大型商業銀行和城市商業銀行三個月期限理財產品預期收益率有所上升,股份制商業銀行和農村商業銀行三個月期限理財產品預期收益率與上週持平。
發行產品數量及期限:十二月第三週理財產品發行總量為1,140款,3個月以內產品發行量為331款,佔比29.0%,較前一週下降;6個月以內產品發行量為736款,佔比64.6%,較前一週下降。據統計,2020年年初至今累計發行產品共35,574款,同比增速為-50.55%。
運作模式:十二月第三週發行的1140款理財產品中,開放式淨值型產品66款,市場佔比5.8%;封閉式淨值型產品413款,市場佔比36.2%;開放式非淨值型產品2款,市場佔比0.2%;封閉式非淨值型產品659款,市場佔比57.8%。l收益類型:十二月第三週發行的1140款理財產品中,保本固定型產品6款,市場佔比0.5%;保本浮動型產品9款,市場佔比0.8%;非保本型產品1,125款,市場佔比98.7%。與前一週相比,非保本型產品佔比上升,保本固定型和保本浮動型和產品佔比下降。
基礎資產:十二月第三週共發行債券產品911款,佔比51.9%;利率產品265款,佔比15.1%;股票產品22款,佔比1.3%;票據產品6款,佔比0.3%。與前一週相比,債券、商品類產品佔比上升,股票、利率、票據、信貸資產、匯率、其他類產品佔比下降。
發行銀行:十二月第三週建設銀行發行70款理財產品佔據首位,民生銀行發行42款理財產品排名第二。同時建設銀行自2020年初至今累計共發行4,162款理財產品,位居第一。
到期市場概況
產品數量及期限:十二月第三週理財產品到期總數為1,763款,較前一週上升。6-12個月、24個月以上到期產品佔比上升,一個月以內、1-3個月、3-6個月、12-24個月到期產品佔比下降。3個月以內到期產品533款,佔比30.23%;6個月內的到期產品1,098款,佔比62.28%。
風險提示:監管政策的超預期變化,信用風險超預期暴露。
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