安踏體育(2020.HK)：4-2億美元出售Precor，AmerSports持續深耕核心户外業，維持“優大於市”評級
機構：海通證券
評級：優大於市
AmerSports將出售旗下跑步機品牌Precor。公司公吿將以4.2億美元出售旗下跑步機品牌Precor，公吿預計此次收購將為合營公司帶來2000萬美元的資本利得，並將以52.7%的股權佔比分成體現於報表。合營公司通過此次出售將收取款項淨額3.6億美元，我們預計此次收購將於2021完成交割。
健身器械業務利潤貢獻小，與公司主業協同效應有限。Precor從事製造、分銷、提供、服務及銷售心血管及力量鍛鍊運動器械、健身器材、健身設備、健身配件及相關技術及數碼服務，系AmerSports旗下健身器械業務的主要品牌。然而從近年AmerSports收入/EBIT/研發投入結構看，健身業務均佔最小比重，2018年分別為14%/4.5%/13%。從利潤率水平看，2016-2018年健身器械EBITMargin均低於户外和球類業務，2018年户外/球類/健身器械EBITMargin分別為12.4%/7%/3.1%，我們認為此次出售將有利於AmerSports專注於鞋服品類拓展和核心品牌投入，並優化內部資源配置。
我們認為此次出售有極大意義：①疫情期間以約1億美元溢價出售非核心品牌，體現公司強大管理和執行能力，②3.6億美元淨額款項將更好增強公司現金流儲備，③出售低利潤率資產，將有助公司提升盈利水平，④利於集中發展鞋服品類和DTC業務。歷史上看，2014-2018年AmerSports的淨利潤主要產生於下半年，且可覆蓋上半年產生的虧損，雖歐美疫情仍處反覆階段，我們預計品牌2020H2將實現盈利。
拓展細分領域是國內運動品牌佔據市場份額的重要途徑之一。歐睿數據顯示，2020年Nike和Adidas在中國運動服飾市佔率分別為19.8%、17.2%，仍穩固佔據前二排名，但我們認為二者的研發和營銷資源均主要深耕於籃球、足球、跑步、綜訓等領域。安踏於2019年收購AmerSports，其主要品牌在市場細分領域排名均處全球市場前茅，其中Salomon在越野跑鞋和裝備、Suunto在潛水錶、Wilson在網球、棒球、足球品類均排名第一，我們認為公司深耕户外細分領域市場是國內品牌實現彎道超車的重要戰略之一，且有助於其打開繼主品牌、Fila之後的第三增長曲線。
盈利預測與估值。我們預計公司2020/2021年收入361.4/454.8億元，同比增6.5%/25.8%，淨利潤53.6/77.0億元，同比增0.3%/43.6%，我們給予2021年PE估值區間35-40X，按照1港元=0.88元人民幣換算，對應合理價值區間113.35-129.55港元/股，維持“優於大市”評級。
風險提示。零售環境疲軟，新品牌收購整合不達預期，店鋪拓展進程放緩等。
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