農夫山泉(09633.HK)：「天然、健康」鑄就水中之王，給予“持有”評級，目標價 50.0 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：持有
目標價：50.0 港元
投資要點
中國包裝飲用水及飲料的龍頭企業： 公司 1996 年以包裝水業務起家，已實現對中國十大優質水源地的戰略佈局， 據沙利文，2012-2019 年，公司市佔率連續八年保持第一，零售額超過第二 名企業 1.5 倍之多。同時，為增強市場競爭力及降低業績波動風險，公司建 立起包裝飲用水和飲料的雙引擎發展格局，實行多品牌戰略，目前產品已覆 蓋包裝飲用水、茶飲料、功能飲料及果汁飲料等類別。以 2019 年零售額計， 公司在茶飲料、功能飲料及果汁飲料的市場份額均居中國市場前三位。
健康化、去糖化、高端化是軟飲消費的核心趨勢： 伴隨居民收入水平的提升和健康意識提高，更多消費者傾向於選擇天然、健 康、無糖、無添加飲料產品，以包裝飲用水為代表的健康飲品增長快速，且 量價仍具備提升空間，預期 2019-2024 年市場規模的 CAGR 達 10.8%至 3,371 億元；而符合當下消費趨勢的無糖茶、中高濃度/純果汁、功能飲料也將保 持高於各細分市場的增速，預期 CAGR 將分別為 22.9%、6.6%/9.8%、9.4%。
公司綜合競爭實力築壁壘： 公司水源地優質、數量領先，能保障產品的穩定供應，並有助供應網絡運營 效率提升；善於使用差異化營銷搶佔消費者心智，品牌力位居榜首，且投入 產出比優於同業競爭者；銷售網絡多元化發展，覆蓋廣泛且深度下沉，通過 極具激勵的渠道體系實現公司、經銷商、銷售終端的三方共贏；擁有極強的 戰略眼光，產品培育具備前瞻性，產品孵化能力強、成功率高、生命週期長。
首次覆蓋給予“持有”評級，目標價 50.0 港元： 公司是行業龍頭，盈利能力業內領先，我們預計公司 2020-2022 年 EPS 分別 0.46/0.57/0.69 元，給予 50.0 港元的目標價，對應 2021/2022 年 73/60 倍 PE， 較現價有 7.3%的漲幅空間，首次覆蓋給予“持有”評級。
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