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盈選報告 | 激光雷達裝車潮即將到來,2021年迎量產元年

話說在前

1. 激光雷達公司已成爲美股市場中炙手可熱的品種,股價波動大2. LZAR、VLDR是其中的代表公司,前者12月以來上漲91%,後者上漲75%3. 已知的激光雷達2021年裝車名單中,包括蔚來2.0平臺轎車,小鵬新車型,領克新一代純電平臺,長城WEY SUV,長安新世代車型,北汽極狐,上汽智己,傳聞中的蘋果汽車也有搭載激光雷達

內容編自中金汽車研究《汽車及零部件:車規級激光雷達,將迎量產元年》

激光雷達的行業近況12月21日,華爲首次發佈其車規級高性能激光雷達產品和解決方案。12月22日,北汽ARCFOX極狐宣佈,其新車αS HBT成爲全球首款搭載華爲車規級激光雷達的車型。在此之前,長城、小鵬、蔚來等車企,已先後公佈了對於裝載激光雷達的產品規劃,預期的裝車時間在2021年。

中金汽車研究認爲,車規級激光雷達有望於2021年實現量產,並帶來搭載車型的自動駕駛性能提升,以及產業鏈投資機會。

分析師評論激光雷達直指自動駕駛感知痛點,可能成爲高級別自動駕駛的主流。

當前量產的智能駕駛系統主要依靠攝像頭、毫米波和超聲波雷達進行環境感知,其在準確性和應用場景等方面較實現高級別自動駕駛要求存在差距。

而激光雷達可憑藉在目標輪廓測量、角度測量、光照穩定性、通用障礙物檢出等方面的優勢,可應對遠距離小障礙物、近距離加塞、隧道、十字路口左拐等難點場景。因此,寶馬、通用汽車、長城、理想汽車等海內外車企均在推進激光雷達的量產應用,以儘早實現高級別自動駕駛落地。

目前只有特斯拉公開表示不會使用激光雷達。中金汽車研究認爲,當前主流車企在感知融合、自動駕駛算法、數據收集等方面,均較特斯拉存在差距,而激光雷達的應用則可快速提升其自動駕駛系統性能,實現安全性躍升,應當會成爲未來高級別自動駕駛的主流。

從目前的消息看,華爲的激光雷達性能優良,搭載車型有望於2021年上市,開啓量產元年。華爲近期發佈的96線中長距激光固態雷達具備150米視場測距,120°×25°視場角和25Hz高頻率,計劃打造爲符合中國複雜路況的高性價比產品。爲滿足嚴苛使用條件下的車規級要求,該產品通過了高低溫溼熱、水壓、振動、鹽霧、人眼安全、EMC(電磁兼容)、碎石衝擊等場景的測試,並具備130km/h高速下清洗和智能加熱融冰能力。

華爲在發佈會上介紹,公司已建立了第一條車規級激光雷達的Pilot產線,面向百萬級量產需求,並按照年產10萬套/線在推進,以適應未來大規模量產需求。而北汽ARCFOX極狐αS-HBT成爲全球首款搭載華爲車規級激光雷達的車型,公司計劃於2021年推出,開啓車規級激光雷達量產元年。

實現從0到1,預計全球市場規模從近乎空白,迅速增長至2030年120億美元。

當前激光雷達主要面臨精度、一致性、耐久性等技術難題,且產量低、價格昂貴,僅小批量應用於自動駕駛改裝車和試製車,量產市場規模幾乎爲零。但從華爲本次發佈的產品看,上述技術短板已被彌補。伴隨華爲和其他廠商的產品量產,可以認爲規模效應將帶來成本快速下降、智能駕駛需求則會帶動滲透率快速提升。

根據中金汽車研究的測算,假設2025年L3/L4級別自動駕駛在新車的滲透率分別達到20%/3%,2030年L3/L4的滲透率分別達到40%/15%,而激光雷達單價有望下降到2025/30年的200/100美金,對應2025/30年中國市場規模18/50億美元,對應2025/30年全球市場規模50/120億美元。

機構估值建議車規級激光雷達有望於2021年實現量產,並快速進入滲透率提升的爆發期。目前行業中也已涌現出一批激光雷達賽道上具備較好技術積累和先發優勢的企業。建議關注包括國內廠商:禾賽科技、速騰聚創、鐳神智能(均未上市),和海外廠商:Velodyne(VLDR)、Luminar(LAZR)(均未覆蓋),Ibeo、Innoviz(均未上市)。

盈選報告提示:美股的激光雷達公司近月來暴漲暴跌,波動劇烈,投資者需謹慎決策。

行業風險提示車規級激光雷達量產進度不及預期,車型研發和推出進度低於預期。

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