惠誉料明年中国钢铁产量达10亿吨
评级机构惠誉发表报告指,明年中国钢铁产量及表观消费量将分别达到10亿吨以上及约9.8亿吨,与去年大致持平,行业基本面表现趋稳。
报告指,受政府经济刺激措施的驱动,今年首九个月广义基础设施投资及房地产开发投资分别增长2.4%及5.6%,惠誉预计明年固定资产投资将继续以低个位数增长,持续支撑钢材需求。中国钢铁企业营收及利润提升,加上资本支出企稳,将支持行业释放自由现金流,降低行业杠杆率。
惠誉预计,由於中国进一步推行超低排放标准,环保措施趋严或将抑制供应。小型厂商将面临更多压力,因其需要投入更多资金满足不断变更的环境相关法规要求,且如果未能达到排放标准,将会受到生产中断的影响。
报告并指,「产能置换」计划将有效推动全国范围内实现钢铁减产,升级版产能置换计划可能将於今年底推出。国有企业将继续在行业整合进程中发挥主导作用。
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