華泰證券:上調現代牧業(1117.HK)目標價至2港元 重申買入評級
華泰證券發表研究報告指出,現代牧業(1117.HK)新擴張計劃表明乳業在未來或將面臨嚴重的原奶供給短缺,而奶牛養殖將在行業中扮演戰略角色。為反映今年下半年的原奶價格上漲,該行將現代牧業今年及明年淨利潤預測上調12.8%和18.6%至6.05億和7.25億元人民幣,而基於DCF的目標價亦上調11%至2港元,重申買入評級。
報告指出,現代牧業計劃至2025年將牧羣規模擴張至50萬頭左右,並將原奶年產量提升至360萬噸。與此同時,公司還計劃涉足新業務,在未來進行肉牛的養殖和銷售。公司在2015年之前一直積極擴張農場和牧羣規模,但在奶牛養殖業步入下行週期後停止擴張。
報告指,奶牛養殖業是重資產型業務。去年現代牧業生物資產以及固定資產在其總資產中的佔比達到85%。公司在2010-15年期間的擴張嚴重依賴於資本市場。2010年,公司IPO募集資金22億港元,2015年的總債務擴大至62億元人民幣。管理層並未提供公司擴張計劃的融資細節,但該行預計公司擴張的資金來源將是現代牧業的經營現金流(該行預計2020-25年年均經營現金流為22億元人民幣)、來自蒙牛的支持、以及可能的外部融資。該行預計,蒙牛將會為公司擴張提供進一步支撐,主因這對蒙牛獲取市場份額同樣至關重要。

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