2021年机械行业策略报告：确定的“制造“＆成长的“智造“，维持“推荐”评级
机构：中国银河证券
评级：推荐
核心观点
疫情冲击弱化，业绩复苏快，2021 年整体仍稳中向好。展望 2021年，我们依然看好在基建和地产投资驱动下确定性较高的工程机械板块；并推荐受益于高端制造投资景气度向上，自动化改造积极性提升的子行业工业机器人；同时推荐业绩稳定估值偏低，受益于新基建城际、市域轨交广阔发展空间的轨交板块。
基建及地产双驱动，工程机械 2021 年确定高。在稳投资、稳增长的目标下，我们预计 2021 年基建将继续发力，成为核心的增长动能。叠加政府工作报告中提出“两新一重”的建设，推进重大工程建设提速，加速城镇化将开启新内需空间。我们预计工程机械板块 2021 年仍具有较高确定性，国产中高端产品竞争力逐步提升，行业龙头份额稳步增长。我们继续看好工程机械行业龙头三一重工（600031.SH）及核心零部件供应商恒立液压（601100.SH）。
中国工业机器人产量增速呈 V 型走势，预计 2021 年仍有望强势回升。我国在工业快速发展的同时，老龄化问题逐步凸显，制造业劳动成本也逐年提升，因此我国工业机器人密度快速提高至 140 台/万名工人。长期来看，随着我国工业机器人下游产业升级、汽车制造业和 3C制造业发展潜力巨大，我们认为国内工业机器人行业仍处于高速增长阶段，工业机器人密度在未来几年有望翻倍增长。我们推荐国内工业机器人标杆企业埃斯顿（002747.SZ）和机器人（300024.SZ）。
随着“新基建”推进，轨交设备或重回视野。作为稳经济的重要措施之一，预计 2021 年铁路投资大概率保持坚挺。由于我国高铁客运量持续快速增长，动车组保持高负荷运行，我们预计到 2022 年高级修市场规模将超过 340 亿元，动车组高级修市场规模已步入新的阶段。另一方面，随着“新基建”的逐步推进，我国各城市轨道交通占公共交通比例，以及一二线城市轨交密度有望向国际领先水平看齐，我们预计未来城市轨道里程可以保持两位数以上的增长速度。 我们推荐轨交控制系统公司中国通号（688009.SH），建议关注地铁信号系统龙头，研发铁路互联互通系统的交控科技（688015.SH）等。
风险提示：基建投资低于预期的风险，房地产政策紧缩的风险，自动化改造不及预期的风险，设备出口不及预期的风险等。
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