农林牧渔行业月度报告：政策驱动+需求改善，建议关注动保、种子板块，维持“同步大市”评级
机构：财富证券
评级：同步大市
投资要点：
市场行情回顾：11月份，农林牧渔（申万）指数上涨 12.49%，跑赢上证综指、深证成指、创业板指、中小板指、沪深 300指数 5.68、6.97、10.57、8.58、5.29个百分点，在申万 28个一级行业指数中排名第 3位。截止 2020年 12月初，农林牧渔板块 PB（MRQ，整体法）为 3.97倍，高于全 A 市净率水平（1.90倍），位于历史后62.50%分位数。
推荐关注长期赛道优质、消费属性强、成长空间大的个股。我国宠物食品行业处于快速发展阶段，同欧美、日本等发达国家相比，我国宠物食品的市场渗透率、单只消费金额仍具有较大增长空间，建议关注宠物食品龙头中宠股份（002891）和佩蒂股份（300673）；国家大力推动冷鲜肉品流通和配送体系建设，逐步实现“集中屠宰、品牌经营、冷链流通、冷鲜上市”。同时消费升级、冷链运输、餐饮连锁化等也将推动冰鲜行业的快速增长，建议关注较早布局屠宰加工、冷鲜销售的生猪养殖龙头温氏股份（300498）、区域黄羽鸡冰鲜龙头湘佳股份（002982）和鸡肉制品龙头圣农发展（002299）。
下游需求恢复+行业格局优化，建议关注动保龙头。农业农村部监测数据显示，截止 2020年 10月底，生猪产能已经恢复到 2017年年末的88%左右，预计明年二季度，全国生猪存栏将基本恢复到正常年份水平。动物疫苗市场化进程加快，产品、技术、渠道、服务能力强的企业将获得更高的市场份额，建议关注生物股份（600201）、普莱柯（603566）、中牧股份（600195）。
政策催化+库存降低+需求增加，建议关注种子龙头企业。国务院办公厅印发《关于防止耕地“非粮化”稳定粮食生产的意见》。《意见》指出，要采取有力举措防止耕地“非粮化”。当前我国玉米、大豆库消比处于较低水平，而下游饲用需求增加，建议关注种子龙头隆平高科（000998）、大北农（002385）、荃银高科(300087)、登海种业（002041）。
风险提示：农产品价格风险、自然灾害、疫情风险、行业政策风险。
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