醫藥行業2021年投資策略：不悲不喜，精選價值
機構：開源證券
“高估值+控費政策”引發板塊調整，目前價位中長期收益有所收斂
醫藥板塊上半年因疫情引發大幅上漲，Q3面臨高估值壓力而開始調整，Q4以支架為代表的集採降幅超預期，引發市場對後續高值耗材集採、創新藥醫保談判、下一輪藥品集採、DRGs/DIP控費的擔憂，板塊進一步回調。經過測算中長期看好的細分龍頭10年後估值，大部分落在10-15PE區間（1年前大部分在10倍PE左右），可以簡單預期10年後是目前市值~3倍左右——源於醫藥真龍頭長期業績預測性相對較強，從10年後的估值可以理解目前各龍頭的短期估值差異原因，但同時目前的價位對應中長期收益有所收斂，對未來收益預期應有所收斂。
具備中長期投資價值醫藥細分板塊，景氣度有望持續
我們將具備中長期投資價值的醫藥板塊細分為：1、精密製造——大國製造，護佑全球；2、健康生活——生命不息，追求不止；3、美好生活——消費升級、量價齊升；4、特色行業——寡頭壟斷、蓬勃發展。總體上景氣度有望持續。?以史為鑑，醫藥十倍股是如何練成的我們簡單分析了醫藥各細分領域過去典型的十倍股，初步結論：1、業績貢獻為主（所處行業成長+公司份額提升），估值提升為輔；2、細分龍頭形成的競爭壁壘/優勢：比如藥品的前瞻研發+銷售驅動、器械的品牌+渠道、CXO的賦能全球研發/生產，醫療服務的商業模式，藥店的精細化管理+併購整合能力，低值耗材的成本+渠道、品牌消費品的量價齊升。3、積極進取的管理層。
2021年策略：不悲不喜，精選價值板塊
經過調整後，短期估值處在相對合理略偏高位置，政策免疫品種，着眼長遠佈局，政策受損品種，超跌波段操作為主。2021年看好：1）具有長邏輯、藉助疫情實現跨越式發展、業績有望持續超預期、低估值的英科醫療、振德醫療等；2）厚積薄發、率先打入全球巨頭產業鏈、全球高分子塑膠耗材隱形冠軍初顯的昌紅科技。3）細分龍頭估值差異較大，可着眼長遠佈局，2021年應擴大選股視野，尋找有積極變化，估值具吸引力的個股，追求板塊超額收益。
風險提示集採降價超預期；醫保談判降幅超預期；其他可能的政策風險等。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
