交银国际料明年价值股续跑赢 港股估值平推荐腾讯(00700.HK)及舜宇(02382.HK)等12股
交银国际董事总经理及研究部主管洪灏在明年投资展望网上会议表示,今年6月以来价值型股票开始跑赢,随着内地经济持续复苏、消费者信心回升和终端需求改善,相信明年价值股表现会继续跑赢增长股。该行的投资模型配置了大部分金融、工业、能源、可选消费及大宗商品等传统行业,并保留部分科技行业配置。
他指,美元进入贬值周期有利中国市场和人民币计价资产,对上证指数未来十二个月目标区间为2,900点至3,600点,港股虽然没有目标价,但计及汇率差价及估值折让,恒指料於24,000点至32,000点波动。
洪灏认为,中港股市整体市场的内部结构变化带来机会,虽然恒指将更多科技股加入成份股,但估值仍仅15倍,属非常便宜,相信会因低估值而有所表现。另外,由於港股是开放型及流动性高的市场,料可继续吸引难以投资美国中资股的资金,估计明年将会有更多资金流入本港。
他提到,美国近期加强对中国的制裁,导致市场反应甚大,不过有关措施多为行政命令,拜登上场後亦可快速取消,但由於中美处竞争格局,不期望美国新政府对华政策会有大改变。他又称不需担心美国对香港银行等进行制裁,因有关措施对美国在港利益影响更大,估计美国的行动只是现任政府为拜登设置障碍,认为市场因此出现的波动反而是建仓机会。
交银国际又提供12只明年行业首选股,包括腾讯(00700.HK)、舜宇光学(02382.HK)、百威亚太(01876.HK)、富力地产(02777.HK)、药明生物(02269.HK)、招商银行(03968.HK)、中金公司(03908.HK)、中国平安(02318.HK)、新奥能源(02688.HK)、福莱特玻璃(06865.HK)、吉利汽车(00175.HK)及国泰航空(00293.HK)。
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