波司登(03998.HK)：淡季不淡，業績超預期，維持“買入”評級，目標價4.21 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：4.21 港元
投資要點
羽絨服繼續引領收入增長，利潤超預期增長
公司收入增加 5.1%至約人民幣 46.611 億元；毛利率提升 4.3 個百分點至 47.8%；經營溢利率提升 3.5 個百分點至 14.3%；公司權益股東應占溢利上升41.8%至約人民幣 4.860億元。1、收入增長情況符合我們此前預期。品牌羽絨服業務依舊保持主導，佔比由去年同期的 57.1%提升至64.1%，同比增長18%。OEM 收入則同比下跌8.9%，女裝業務下跌18.5%，也基本在預期波動範圍之內。2、毛利率上升 4.3%則超過我們的預期，主要系品牌羽絨服業務的毛利率增加 3.5%所致，其中波司登品牌毛利率提升了2.9%。3、得益於毛利率的提升以及公司良好的費用控制（銷售、管理和財務費用分別提升 0.7/0.8/0.6PCT，幅度較小，體現強運營能力），權益股東應占溢利上升 41.8%，超出我們的預期。4、公司今年將着力打造“效率年”，力爭以更低的成本，獲取更好的品牌建設。我們認為，公司未來盈利的增長關鍵就在於是否可以強化品牌定位，抓住消費者心智，逐漸樹立中高端品牌形象。
庫存週轉有所上升，全年預計保持平穩水平
庫存方面，今年疫情後，原料價格下行，公司提前鎖定了一些原材料的價格，備了一些貨，所以原材料存貨上漲，但整體存貨絕對值下降。週轉天數上升 28 天，主要是期初存貨上升，但全年來看，預計全年週轉天數不會上升。
維持“買入”評級，給予目標價 4.21 港元
公司此次業績淡季不淡，超出預期，盈利能力和費用管控力度較好，我們持續看好公司進一步提升品牌定位，優化渠道，提升量和價，推動業績增長。我們仍看好公司長線的品牌成長。我們上調業績預測，預計公司FY2021/2022/2023的 EPS 分別為 0.14/0.18/0.22元， 給予 FY2022年 20倍PE，給予公司目標價至 4.21港元，維持“買入”評級。
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