《大行報告》瑞信:內地借貸利率回升利好內銀盈利 首選工行、農行及建行
瑞信發表研究報告指,由於預期9月新貸款的實際貸款利率將按季回升,在中資銀行全年盈利改善的憧憬帶動下,內銀A股在上周五(27日)帶動全線銀行股股價上漲。
瑞信表示,過往數據顯示,一般貸款的實際貸款利率是商業銀行一個或多個季度淨息差指標,而第三季實際貸款利率反彈也與季度淨息差反彈的趨勢一致,增加予中國銀行業全年盈利錄得正增長的可能性。
該行預計,第四季度淨息差將保持穩定或表現更好,展望明年首季度抵押貸款的重新定價,料將引發對淨息差的一次性負面影響,但相信影響將在餘下幾個季度逐步消散。以估值計,平安銀行及招商銀行(03968.HK)近期上漲得較快,認為中國郵儲行及(01658.HK)及光大銀行(06818.HK)的估值似乎更具吸引力,繼續推薦四大內銀,依次看好工商銀行(01398.HK)、農業銀行(01288.HK)及建設銀行(00939.HK),均予「跑贏大市評級」,目標價5.8、3.5及7.2元。
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