銀行業：貨政基調偏緊+貸款定價回升，銀行估值修復有望持續，維持“推薦”評級
機構：興業證券
評級：推薦
投資要點
本週銀行板塊上漲4.38%，跑贏滬深300指數3.63個百分點，表現居前的主要為廈門銀行(11.37%)、成都銀行(9.30%)、郵儲銀行(9.05%)、興業銀行（8.36%）等標的。
本週央行發佈3季度貨幣政策執行報告，總體而言報告確認經濟增長持續好於預期、貨幣政策基調邊際收緊、9月新發放貸款定價企穩回升。我們對於銀行基本面繼續維持前期判斷，預計4季度持續改善，21年規模驅動小幅減弱，但息差逐漸修復，前置的減值計提給信用成本改善提供了空間。
目前銀行板塊估值0.76xPB，三季度業績靴子落地銀行板塊基本面拐點確立，估值修復有望持續。4季度估值切換窗口打開，以及近期市場風格的再平衡，銀行板塊相對收益性價比逐步提升，繼續看好行業年末的表現。重點提示關注成長性高/風控能力優秀/估值尚不高的中小銀行未來一段時間的表現，絕對收益投資者也可繼續配置高股息的港股大行。個股上，長期看好行業龍頭的戰略/業務領先能力，包括招行、平安、寧波等，當下時點關注股份行及小行中，基本面優秀、估值彈性較大的標的，包括興業、光大、杭州、成都等。
要聞回顧：央行發佈《2020年第三季度中國貨幣政策執行報告》和《2020年第三季度支付體系運行總體情況》；央行、香港金融管理局續簽貨幣互換協議並擴大規模。浙商銀行設立浙銀理財子公司；銀保監會同意華夏銀行發行不超過600億元金融債券；銀保監會同意光大銀行設立澳門分行。?市場表現：本週A股表現居前的為廈門銀行(11.37%)、成都銀行(9.30%)、郵儲銀行(9.05%)，常熟銀行(1.46%)、招商銀行(1.78%)、浙商銀行(2.22%)表現居後。
資金價格：本週人民幣兑美元匯率下降為6.75，央行公開市場操作淨投放1,300億元，10年期國債收益率下行至3.30%，10年期企業債（AAA）到期收益率下行至4.36%。城投債利差走闊，地方政府債利差走闊。?理財產品：上週理財產品發行總量1,195款，到期總數1,477款，淨髮行-282款。相較於前一週，4個月和9個月理財產品預期收益率上升，1周、2周、1個月、2個月、3個月、6個月和1年理財產品預期收益率下跌。?同業存單：本週1月/3月/6月同業存單利率分別是2.76%/3.37%/3.45%，本週發行同業存單798款，融資4,651億元，存量同業存單15,359款，共計109,871億元。
風險提示：銀行資產質量超預期惡化，監管政策超預期變化
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