《大行報告》大摩:內地個人收入增長正面 利率正常化下 可降內銀利潤壓力
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,人民銀行及網聯的支付數據回升,可能表明內地商業活動的反彈要比官方數據強,尤其是那些沒有被官方捕獲的新銷售渠道數據。再加上收入增長的反彈和家庭財富創造強勁,應料可為中國金融行業提供支持。
據人民銀行報告今年第三季度,內地銀行卡消費支付金額為30.82萬億元人民幣,按年增長4%,該行認為在持續增長的情況下,到第三季度末增長可能會更高。
該行指,基於內地消費復蘇,料可支持今年第三季個人財富按年升6.9%(對比第二季升4.5%),今年至今的增長率約4%,該行預計全年增長率將高於名義GDP增長。另一方面,家庭第三季度存款保持強勁,按年增長約13.5%。
大摩認為,上述情況將確保內地貨幣政策、利率環境將進一步正常化,將降低嚴控內銀利潤增長的壓力,該行認為從事零售和財富管理業務的內銀如興業銀行(601166.SH),平安銀行(000001.SZ)和招行(03968.HK)等重點銀行將從中受益最大。
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