金科服務(09666.HK)：規模與品質兼具，高成長風采矚目，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
機構：開源證券
評級：買入
佈局全國，智慧化服務，成長與品質兼優，首次覆蓋給予買入評級
公司背靠母公司金科股份，在手現金充足有效保障外拓力度，成長性佳；同時服務品質優異，智能化、數據化服務提升業主體驗；股權激勵機制完備充分保障管理層與股東利益一致。我們預計公司 2020-2022年歸母淨利潤分別為 6.10、 10.06、14.30億元，同比增長66%、65%、42%；EPS分別為0.96、1.59、2.26元/股，當前股價對應估值為 43、26、18倍。首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
高成長風采矚目，多元業務協同增長
1）物管服務：規模與品質兼具，全業態服務覆蓋。截至 2020H1，公司合約管理面積 2.56億平米，在管面積1.30億平米，量價齊升推動物管收入增速達39%。公司目前全業態覆蓋住宅、非住宅領域，續約率達 98.9%。2）社區增值服務收入佔比 9%，緊繞業主高頻需求。2020H1，社區增值服務收入 1.26 億元，同比增長 28%，其中家庭生活服務、園區經營服務、家居煥新服務及旅居綜合服務佔比分別為 50%、26%、12%、12%，毛利率達36.6%。3）非業主增值服務收入佔比 21%，盈利能力提升。2020H1，非業主增值服務營收 2.92 億元，同比增長29%，毛利率39.9%，較2019 年提升了7個百分點。4）構建智能化、數據化、AI化的“數智場景新生態”，有效提升運營效率及業主滿意度。
核心看點：規模+品質+團隊，締造優質成長標的
1）規模優勢明顯，成長性佳。公司背靠母公司金科股份，2019 年金科股份銷售面積 1905萬平米，位列全行業第 8名，同時在手土儲達7400萬平米，未來這部分項目將逐漸轉化為公司在管項目，有效保障公司管理項目的增長。目前公司2020H1合同管理面積是在管面積的 2.0倍。2）品質優異，滿意度行業領先。公司開發金管家、金悦家及金慧家三種標準化服務體系，住宅領域客户滿意度連續八年達 90%以上。3）科學完善激勵體系，管理團隊朝氣蓬勃。兩次員工持股計劃覆蓋近 600名員工，有效綁定管理層與股東利益。
風險提示：宏觀經濟不景氣，居民支付能力下降；成本剛性，毛利持續壓縮。
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