京東集團-SW(09618.HK)：商品零售業務經營槓桿展現利潤彈性，第三方物流服務虧損收窄，經營利潤率創歷史新高，維持“買入”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：買入
投資要點
利潤率改善明顯，業績持續超預期：京東集團發佈 2020 年第三季度業績，收入 1742.1 億元，同比增長 29.2%；實現 Non-GAAP 歸母淨利潤55.6 億元，同比增長 80.1%。本季度公司收入、利潤均超市場預期。本季度公司經調整歸母淨利率達到 3.2%的歷史新高，主要歸功於零售業務經營槓桿逐步顯現，零售業務經營利潤率 3.9%，同比增長 0.6pct，以及新業務中第三方物流服務虧損縮減，導致經營虧損率收窄至-6.3%。其中，9 月份京東物流收入接近 50%來自第三方商户，物流規模效應顯現，帶動本季度履約毛利率同比提升 0.3pct，達到 8.7%。
品類擴充成效顯著，日用消費品業務成公司收入增長重要支撐：商品銷售收入中電子產品及家用電器淨收入 933.3 億元，同比增長 23.2%，仍然保持高於大盤的增長速度；日用百貨商品銷售收入為 580.7 億元，同比增長 34.8%，承接上個季度，依然主要由超市和醫療保健品類增長帶動。公司自營業務擴品類成效顯著，從低頻、體積大的帶電品類轉向高頻低客單的百貨商品，其中 Q3 超市品類訂單量同比增長 48%。公司品類增長的同時依然維持着較高的運營效率，庫存週轉天數降至 34.3 天 （TTM）。產品組合的變化帶動公司毛利率環比提升 1.2pct，達到 15.4%。
下沉戰略推動活躍用户高速增長，獲客成本持續降低：本季度京東活躍用户數達 4.42 億，同比增長 32.1%，連續 5 個季度加速增長，本期新增活躍用户 2420 萬，連續 4 個季度維持在 2000 萬以上新增，本季度新增用户中約八成來自低線城市。截止今年 10 月，京東 Plus 會員數超過了2000 萬，京東 Plus 有效提升了核心用户的參與度和留存，ARPU 值為非會員的數倍。
盈利預測與投資評級：基於公司出色的效率提升和盈利改善，以及用户獲取策略上取得的顯著成果，我們上調對公司 2020-2022 年的業績預測，分別為 7489.3/9133.9/10973.1 億元，同比增長 29.8%/22.0%/20.1%，非公認會計准則下的歸母淨利潤分別為 177.1/265.0/362.5 億元，同比增長64.8%/49.6%/36.8%，對應 PE 分別為 51.3/34.3/25.1 倍（港幣:人民幣=1:0.85），維持公司“買入”評級。
風險提示：商品品質風險，供應鏈拓展風險，宏觀經濟波動。
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