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《大行報告》摩通:部份內企近期債務違約惹關注 但不預期中國爆發「明斯基時刻」
阿思達克 11-18 14:38
摩根大通發表報告表示,近期內地國企出現債務違約的情況,引發市場關注,拖累內銀股股價表現;而國企債券佔整體公司債券達90%,貸款則佔商業銀行企業帳之53.1%。該行預期,國企債務違約率將進一步上升,即使國企債券的違約率不斷上升,但信用風險受控,據該行估計國企債券的潛在債務風險率為5.3%。

不過該行認為,不預期內地國企債務爆發「明斯基時刻」(是指在信貸週期或商業週期中,資產價格開始大幅下挫的時份),至今年11月累積債務違約率為1.83%,低於今年第三季銀行的不良貸款率1.96%,因此債務違約風險遠未達到「響起警號」的水平;亦認為中央會逐步推出措施以解決上述問題,由於債券價格的調整,內銀的投資損失將增加,但預計企業不良貸款率不會急劇上升。

於內銀股中,該行看好招商銀行(03968.HK),主因其企業債券之業務比重較低。

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