植耀輝: 疫苗股不宜盲目追入 蔚來(NIO.US)貴得有理?
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，環球股市近日繼續有理想表現，繼早前輝瑞(Pfizer)(PFE.US)宣布疫苗研發有望成功之際，另一生物科技公司Moderna(MRNA.US)於本周一(16日)指其研發之疫苗有效率近95%，而且更易於儲藏，消息一出其股價當晚大升近一成，反而Pfizer股價卻下跌3.34%。由於現時有為數相當多生物科技公司正埋頭苦幹地研發新冠疫苗，可以預期未來將有更多疫苗相關消息；不過，所謂「達者為先」，一旦其中一間成功「跑出」，其他陪跑者的心血便可能付之流水。所以大家炒作疫苗股，亦要認清相關情況，不宜盲目追入。
另外，如果說今年熱炒之投資主題，新能源車肯定是其中之一，原因不外乎是國策大力支持有關；隨著越來越多新能源車企到美國掛牌，炒作風氣更盛，情況更相當「得人驚」。上周五(13日)美股十大成交中，有四間公司與新能源車有關，分別是蔚來(NIO.US)、Tesla(TSLA.US)、理想汽車(LI.US)及小鵬汽車(XPEV.US)，而最大成交就是蔚來，成交金額高達274億美元，成交量之多就連排第二及第三之亞馬遜(AMZN.US)及蘋果公司(AAPL.US)成交量相加也不及其80%。亞馬遜及蘋果公司已是萬億美元巨企，成交量活躍亦相當正常，不過蔚來最新市值約606億美元(截至周二)，由此可見其轉手率有多頻繁；即使周一成交量稍見回落，但成交金額依然高達139.6億美元。
筆者近年有不少朋友已轉為投資美股，起初對蔚來這些股份抱有相當戒心，尤其是年初時該公司一度瀕臨債務問題爆煲；但當其股價越升越有(今年以來累升超過1,000%)，而且單日波幅驚人，漸漸便成為朋友眼中短炒必然對象。隨著股價越升越急，大家亦開始有一個疑問，就是蔚來是否貴得有理?
先看蔚來汽車最新交付量情況：10月份交付數量5,055輛，同比增長100.1%；年初至今累計交付數量31,430輛，同比增長111.4%。相比之下，Tesla第三季(7至9月份)汽車交付數量為13.95萬輛，同比增加43.67%。可見現時蔚來生產之規模，較Tesla仍少得多，而且Tesla自有廠房並生產，蔚來則將生產外判予江淮汽車。
至於市值方面，截至上周五，Tesla最新市值達3,872億美元，蔚來約為其六分之一。不過Tesla已連續五個季度取得盈利，蔚來則仍處於虧損，但第二季毛利率已能轉正，經營虧損亦持續收窄。最新公布的第三季度業績，收入45.26億元人民幣，較2019年第三季度增長146.4%，毛利率為12.9%亦較第二季持續有改善；歸屬普通股股東淨虧損為11.879億元人民幣，與去年同期相比收窄53.5%。該公司亦預期第四季度交付量在16,500輛至17,000輛之間，總收入在62.587億元至64.358億元人民幣之間。
無疑現階段蔚來估值偏高應是不爭事實，不過內地正全力推動新能源車發展，未來內地新能源車車企能否「超車」，相信會是一個相當有趣的話題。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有Amazon股份)~
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