中芯国际(00981.HK)：先进制程进展顺利，上调全年收入预测，维持“强烈推荐”评级
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评级：强烈推荐
行业旺季叠加华为拉单，3Q 业绩超预期，上修全年营收指引。 3Q20 为晶圆代工传统旺季，叠加华为 915 前拉单影响，公司三季度收入 10.83 亿美元，创历史新高。收入环比增 1.44 亿，其中 14/28nm 收入环比增 5,734 万，40/55nm 收入环比增 2,764万，两者贡献了总收入增长的 59%，可见 12 寸厂是 3 季度主要增长动因，本期其他收入环比增 7,265 万，贡献总收入增长的50%。公司本期上调全年营收指引至同比增长 24%至 26%。
美国出口管制影响可控，下调 2020 全年 Capex 计划。公司 10 月 4 日公告受到美国出口管制，美国设备采购期拉长或影响中芯国际扩产进程，公司本期将 2020 全年 Capex 从 67 亿下调至 59 亿美元。公司表示目前正常运营，短期虽产生一定影响，但影响可控。
成熟制程：扩产进程中保持满载，ASP 提高，受益手机产业链备货。公司截至 9 月末总产能从 2Q20 的 480k 每月提高到 510k每月，产能利用率已连续 5 个季度高于 97%，景气度维持在高 位。下游产品中，PMIC、RF、Fingerprient、CIS 收入增长显著，智能手机相关产品本期占收入比重为 46%，受益于智能手机产业链备货，成熟制程产能有望持续保持满载。
先进制程：增长迅速，看好四季度矿机订单填补空缺。14/28nm本期占比提升至 14.6%，增长迅速，N+1 本期已进入小量试产。由于 915 后特定客户不能下单，先进制程面临产品结构调整。公司目前先进制程有超过 10 家客户，考虑到四季度加密货币行情波动较大，矿机市场供不应求，我们判断矿机订单四季度有 望填补部分 FinFET 产能。未来随着更多产品导入，先进制程仍 将是公司增长的重要驱动力。
全年测算：上调全年收入预测至 38.9 亿美金。考虑到三季度超预期及四季度景气延续，我们上调全年营收预测至 38.9 亿美金，全年同比增长 24.8%。由于上半年扩出的产能逐渐开始折旧，毛利率四季度预估下滑至 17.5%，2020 全年预估为 24%。
投资建议:
中芯国际是国产晶圆代工龙头，成熟制程受益智能手机产业链备货预计持续满载，先进制程持续研发。我们预计公司 2020-2022 年实现收入 38.89/41.12/46.27 亿美元，每股净资产为 1.87/1.93/1.99 美元，对应当前市值的 PB 为 1.61、1.56、1.51 倍，维持“强烈推荐”评级。
风险提示：扩产后折旧提高或使毛利率承压；技术研发不及预期；行业竞争加剧；中美贸易摩擦加剧。
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