《大行報告》匯豐研究:京東(09618.HK)再投資推動持續增長 目標價下調至382元
匯豐研究發表的報告指,按非通用會計準則(non-GAAP)計算京東(09618.HK)第三季淨利潤率創新高達3.2%,而收入亦按年增長29%,估計受惠「雙11」銷售升33%,第四季商品交易額(GMV)將按年增長25%。但該行估計第四季non-GAAP淨利潤率將按季回落至1.4%,主要因為公司在宣傳旺季中投入較多營銷資源,以應對季節性因素及市場競爭,該行將公司2020財年盈利預測提升,但就將2021/22財年盈測分別降2%及5%,以反映利潤擴張減慢,因為管理層計劃在未來數季繼續投資,但長遠料將有成果,該行將公司目標價由390元降至382元,評級維持「買入」。
該行指出京東超市仍然是最大的品類,訂單按年增長48%,管理層認為這方面有重大機遇,市場規模或達6,900億元人民幣,而線上服務供應商提供了五種不同的模式,分別是B2C、店倉、社區團購、B2B及前置倉,而京東已在B2C及店倉方面投資,估計將在其他方面繼續投資以尋找最適合的商業模式,並帶動長遠增長。
報告指京東物流收入增長加快,並按年增長73%,主要受老外部客戶及非京東訂單收入貢獻提升,惟經營利潤率由次季的1%轉為負6%,主要因為季節性因素拖累訂單規模,該行估計受惠規模增加,加上在倉庫、冷鏈及基建方面的投資,2021及2022財年其經營利潤率將維持在低單位數水平,管理層估計長遠利潤率將維持穩定,並料不低於物流同業水平。
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