轮胎行业跟踪：中国轮胎行业的进口替代将持续，维持“超配”评级
机构：西部证券
评级：超配
中国轮胎行业的主要逻辑在于对外资轮胎份额的抢夺。中国轮胎对外资轮胎的替代在上半年达到高潮，但值得指出的是，轮胎的进口替代不是今年疫情之下的独立事件，而是在过去的两三年间持续发生，并且在未来会加速的进程。对外，随着外资轮胎企业盈利下滑，资本开支的意愿减弱，中国企业通过成本优势，不断扩产蚕食份额。对内，轮胎的重资产属性使得新资本难以进入，行业分化之下，头部企业从规模、资金、渠道等方面压制尾部企业。未来，国内头部企业开杠杆扩产，对内对外双重挤压份额，同时实现向规模要利润是确定路径。
海外轮胎企业过去几年在亚太区域份额持续下降。回顾过去，全球轮胎行业龙头市占率呈下滑态势，在过去的两至三年间亚太及中国地区外资轮胎品牌持续退出，中国轮胎企业的市场份额不断提升。如普利司通17至19年亚太区销售额CAGR为-4.3%，2020H1同比-23.4%；固特异2019年亚太区营收同比-4.6%，2020H1同比-29.3%；韩泰在中国区的营收近两年下滑明显，从2017年的9030亿韩元下滑至2019年的7670亿韩元，CAGR=-7.84%。
中国轮胎的对外资的份额挤占在2021年将会继续。立足当下，疫情对海外轮胎企业的经营和业绩形成巨大冲击，海外企业面临空前压力。展望未来：1）海外胎企将持续削资本开支，未来增长乏力。2020H1除普利司通外，其他企业的资本开支均同比下滑10%-50%不等，固特异、韩泰等公司纷纷下调其全年的资本开支预期；2）海外胎企将通过提价和出让中低端市场来提振业绩。直接提价如米其林近3年轮胎均价同比增速约在2-3%；间接提价即各企业通过提升其大尺寸轮胎占比，进而主攻中高端市场，如米其林2020H1的18寸以上轮胎占比销量达到新高46%；3）与之形成鲜明对比的是国内头部企业积极扩产，进口替代有望加速。玲珑等7家头部企业在2019年共计资本支出69.65亿元，同比增长26.6%，连续三年同比超过15%的增长；4）同时叠加疫情可能出现的反复。我们认为中国轮胎行业的进口替代将会在未来加速进行，中国轮胎行业全球市场份额的提升仍会继续。
投资建议：好赛道+低估值+中国企业绝对竞争优势的轮胎行业值得更多关注。我们认为中国轮胎的进口替代将持续，中长期有较大增长空间。建议关注玲珑轮胎（601966.SH）、赛轮轮胎（601058.SH）、森麒麟（002984.SZ）、贵州轮胎（000589.SZ）、三角轮胎（601163.SH）。
风险提示：项目建设落后预期；主要市场关税壁垒政策变动；原材料价格上涨等。
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