渣打料拜登胜选煞停中美关系恶化惟激烈竞争持续 明年上半年人币升见6.3
渣打银行中国宏观策略部主管刘洁发表报告,指拜登胜出美国总统大选,料可煞停中美关系急速恶化,及在有共同利益的范畴上有望重新有限度合作。激进及军事冲突的风险放缓。不过,要撤回过去举措的阻力则甚大,经修订的世贸(WTO)框架或用於解决贸易争议;该行料双边关税料维持至最快新一阶段中美贸易协议达成。中美激烈竞争未来数年料持续,中国现时国内生产总值(GDP)相当於美国的约70%,在拜登首届任期结束时料升至介乎85%至90%。
报告料事故风险放缓将有利人民币更好反映基本面。对北京而言,人民币进一步升值是可以容忍,人行近期措施旨在减慢人民币升值速度,而不是扭转升值势头。中国出口货被徵高关税的负面影响放缓。但拜登胜选後人民币急升或预支了未来动力,致短期升值速度放缓。
渣打下调2020至2025年美元/人民币预测,以反映中国较其他新兴市场国家相对节制的货币政策。在中国回复增长、利率溢价、强劲贸易盈余及资本流入下,料明年上半年人民币将升见6.3兑一美元。该行料明年下半年人民币将回落至6.45兑一美元,反映中国经济复苏势头放缓预期。该行公平值分析料长期美元/人民币公平值在2022至2025年间介乎6.5至6.7水平。
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