中國有贊(08083.HK)：Q3SaaS收入超預期，ARPU提升客户結構優化，維持“增持”評級
機構：浙商證券
評級：增持
事件：
2020Q1-3營收13.06億（+65.4%），經營虧損3.56億（收窄34.8%）；Q3營收4.82億（+70.2%），經營虧損1.16億（收窄39.7%），單Q3收入超我們預期。
投資要點
收入：Q3SaaS及延伸服務收入高增，預計受益ARPU大幅提升
20Q1-3營收13.06億（+65.4%），Q3實現營收4.82億（+70.2%），其中20Q1-3SaaS收入7.58億（+92.1%），延伸服務收入1.93億（+82.3%）,交易費收入3.07億元（+38.5%）；單Q3SaaS收入2.83億（+91.2%），延伸服務收入0.71億（+88.5%）,高增預計受益商户ARPU大幅提升，交易費收入1.04億元（+32.93%），剔除原有業務基本與GMV增速相匹配。
經營數據：付費商家數和GMV邊際有所放緩，流失率提升，預計系旺季錯期、後疫情線下復甦和快手平台佔比降低有關
20Q3存量付費商家數達97,875家（+28.57%），新增付費商家12,969家，同比降22.11%，環比降16.7%，邊際放緩。預計主要系：1）19Q3由於快手直播放量和備戰雙十一奠定高基數，20H1疫情部分透支20Q3商户需求，導致邊際放緩；2）快手加大扶持自身小店力度，使得部分主播續約率下降或轉移至有贊客分銷服務。20Q1-3GMV723億元（+90.26%），Q3為261億元（+63.13%），預計後疫情線下復甦影響線上佔比，GMV增速逐漸恢復正常。
盈利能力：毛利率提升，調整利潤減虧，費用管控效率提升
20Q1-3毛利率60.3%（+10.9pct），20Q3毛利率61.96%（+17.98pct）。毛利率大幅增長主要系高毛利率業務SaaS及延伸服務佔比提升所致；其中SaaS及延伸服務毛利率80.3%（+10.2pct），規模效應凸顯。費用方面，20Q1-3銷售/行政/研發費用率分別為40.9%/14.00%/23.0%，同比變化-4.3%/-8.3%/-5.7%。20Q1-3調整後虧損1.68億，同比收窄42%。
展望：後疫情時代保持正常高增長趨勢，將繼續堅持五大戰略方向。
1）幫助商家多渠道經營，優化流量渠道，隨着微信小程序首次參加雙11生態，預計20Q4GMV高增，環比邊際改善；2）提供直播電商解決方案，藉助有贊客吸引更多流量主，實現流量變現；3）提升服務頭部商家能力，獲取更多頭部品牌客户，預計20年ARPU值顯着提高；4）搭建電商健康生態，提供更多產品和服務體系，推動20Q4商家數量增長邊際改善；5）廣闊市場空間，隨着銷售團隊成熟和線下門店SaaS快速發展，公司在未來2-3年內業績有望持續高增長。
盈利預測及估值
預計公司2020-22年營收19.5/31.4/45.2億元，同增66.2%/60.8%/44.2%，經營利潤-5.83/-4.68/-3.73億元。維持“增持”評級。
風險提示
SaaS發展不及預期、支付業務發展不及預期，導致公司收入和盈利能力下降
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