傳媒行業：生鮮社區團購成風口，互聯網巨頭搶佈局，維持“推薦”行業評級
機構：興業證券
評級：推薦
投資要點
生鮮市場空間巨大，生鮮線上化佈局從未間斷。1）前瞻產業研究院數據顯示，中國生鮮零售交易規模在2019年達到5.1萬億元，生鮮行業仍將保持穩定增長，整體市場增速將保持在3%左右；2）中國生鮮電商2019年市場規模為2888億元，同比增長19.14%；3）近年來網上零售額增速高於社會消費品零售總額，線上滲透率逐年上升，2019年線上滲透率為25.83%，而生鮮零售線上化率不足6%，隨着線上化率的持續提升，未來增長潛力巨大。
社區拼團優勢明顯，千億市場可期。1）對於企業來説，社區團購採取預購模式，現金流靈活，運營模式輕，便於複製與規模化，同時由於基於社區熟人的信任交易，獲客成本低，圍繞社區集中採配，最後用户自提，降低配送成本；2）對於消費者來説，社區拼團無中間商賺差價，商品價格優勢明顯，同時為熟人交易，產品質量與售後有保障；3）生鮮社區拼團年在疫情的刺激下發展迅猛，2020年市場規模預計將達720億元，未來預計保持良好增長態勢，到2022年有望達到千億級別。
社區拼團新老入局者眾多，互聯網巨頭佈局優勢更明顯，有望快速追趕。1）隨着社區團購的興起與發展整合，目前老牌社區團購主流參與包括十薈團、興盛優選、食享會、你我您社區購等，新入局互聯網巨頭包括美團、拼多多、滴滴、京東、阿里等；2）以美團為代表的互聯網巨頭入局社區拼團，價格更具吸引力，美團在團購、外賣風口中面對激烈的競爭，錘鍊出強大執行力與效率，積累了供應鏈與流量優勢，美團優選推出產品價格明顯優惠，類比較早佈局的興盛優選與十薈團等價格優勢可以達到近30%；3）美團與各大互聯網巨頭對比，均擁有豐富的補貼經驗，尤其是美團、滴滴、拼多多，在過往激烈的競爭，形成了強大執行力與高效率的補貼方案，在社區拼團的產品中，產品的價格優勢不相伯仲，巨頭間的競爭將會曠日持久。
投資策略：我們認為，生鮮有望成為電商新的增長極，眾玩家湧入社區拼團有望推動行業快速增長。生鮮為高頻消費，對於互聯網公司來説流量價值巨大，同時生鮮行業市場空間為萬億級別，入局生鮮電商對於提振公司自身收入水平意義重大，看好各公司快速入局社區生鮮拼團，有望帶動各大平台公司收入再上新台階。受益標的包括：【美團】、【拼多多】、【京東】、【阿里巴巴】等。
風險提示：線上化進程不及預期；行業競爭加劇；政策監管加劇。
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