電氣設備行業週報：看好年末行情,佈局核心資產，維持“推薦”行業評級
機構：國海證券
評級：推薦
多重利好催化板塊：1）拜登當選，預期將強力支持新能源，主張美國會重新加入《巴黎協定》，這將是短期板塊最重要催化劑。2）11月3日大眾深圳發佈會推出ID.4純電動車（緊湊型SUV），補貼後售價不超過25萬元、預計續航520-550km，性價比凸顯有望成為爆款，或將持續催化板塊。3）歐洲新能源車銷量靚麗，其中德國10月份銷量4.8萬輛/YoY303%/QoQ34%/MoM17%；法國10月份銷量2萬輛/YoY214%/QoQ19%/MoM13%，銷量均創10月數據新高。4）國內造車新勢力高歌猛進，小鵬10月份交付量3040台/YoY229%；蔚來單月交付量5055台，前10個月累計交付31430台/YoY111%；理想10月份交付量3692台，再次刷新單月交付記錄。
受益新能源車銷量提升，動力電池產業鏈價格穩中有升。1）正極材料：電池級碳酸鋰本週均價4.15萬元/噸，較上週小幅上漲2%。2）電解液：新能源車產銷兩旺下動力電池需求高漲，而六氟磷酸鋰擴產週期長（1.5年）、廠商庫存低，供需錯配下、六氟磷酸鋰均價維持高位10.5萬元/噸，預計明年六氟磷酸鋰穩中上漲或將延續。
投資建議：行業基本面持續向好，疊加產業鏈景氣度持續上行，維持新能源車行業“推薦”評級。建議佈局主線：1）具有顯著產業優勢的細分龍頭：寧德時代、恩捷股份、億緯鋰能、贛鋒鋰業。2）困境反轉後步入中長期成長的優質細分龍頭當升科技、比亞迪、欣旺達。3）受益於行業復甦供需格局顯著改善，其產品價格有望持續上行的六氟磷酸鋰/溶劑/電解液產業鏈：天賜材料、新宙邦、石大勝華、多氟多。4）困境有望反轉且具有較大預期差的標的：杉杉股份、孚能科技、北汽藍谷、諾德股份。其他建議關注璞泰來、中科電氣、科達利等。當下重點推薦寧德時代、當升科技、億緯鋰能、天賜材料、杉杉股份。
光伏旺季來臨，政策支持景氣度持續向好。近期國家能源局下發《光伏發電系統效能規範》，將電站容配比從此前1：1提高至1.8：1，預計電站運營商為增加發電量、降低LOCE將提高組件使用量，利好光伏全產業鏈。另外，近期《中共中央關於制定國民經濟和社會發展第十四個五年規劃和二〇三五年遠景目標的建議》,提出2035年遠景目標“…廣泛形成綠色生產生活方式…生態環境根本好轉…”奠定了光伏裝機的長線邏輯。展望未來光伏平價已經來臨，我們對於明年裝機需求、以及格局好的龍頭業績均保持樂觀。
投資建議：三季報印證基本面持續改善，看好光伏產業長期需求超預期，繼續維持光伏行業“推薦”評級。推薦行業龍頭，以及格局比較好的環節。1）推薦隆基股份（看好龍頭優勢擴大，組件市佔率提升），關注通威股份；2）推薦格局好的玻璃環節，福萊特、信義光能；3）推薦EVA的福斯特。另外關注其他環節龍頭，陽光電源、固德威、愛旭股份等標的。
風險提示：疫情持續時長和影響深度超預期；光伏政策變化風險;新能源政策波動風險;產品價格低於預期；大盤系統性風險；推薦公司業績低於預期。
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