房地產行業：新房二手房成交量連續三週同比增長，去化有所改善，給予“推薦”行業評級
機構：方正證券
評級：推薦
核心觀點：
本週新房、二手房成交量相比於上週均有所下降，但同比增長較為顯著。52 個城市新房成交套數為 6.1 萬套，環比下降 3.5%，同比上升 15.4%；21 個大中城市新房成交套數為 3.5 萬套，環比下降 2.6%，同比上升 7.9%；一、二、三線城市新房成交環比增速分別為+5.9%、-0.1%、-15.3%，同比增速分別為+46.0%、+12.4%、-21.9%。 18 個城市二手房成交 1.8 萬套，環比下降12.2%，同比上升 3.4%；13 大中城市二手房成交 1.5 萬套，環比下降 13.4%，同比下降 1.4%；一、二、三線城市二手房成交環比增速分別為-19.6%、-7.9%、-16.2%，同比增速分別為+12.1%、-0.3%、-23.6%。
新房庫存量與上週相比有所下降，去化週期有所下降。16 個城市庫存 105.2 萬套，環比下降 0.4%，去化週期為 10.4 個月，環比下降 0.2 個月；9 個大中城市庫存 59.0 萬套，環比下降0.8%，去化週期為 8.7 個月，環比下降 0.1 個月。一線城市庫存量 26.0 萬套，環比下降 1.1%，去化週期為 7.0 個月，環比下降 0.1 個月。二線城市庫存量 21.9 萬套，環比下降 0.1%，去化週期為 11.5 個月，環比下降 0.3 個月。
整體土地市場較上週相比量跌價漲，土地溢價率有所下降。百城成交全類型土地數量為 322 宗，環比下降 4.5%，同比下降29.5%；成交土地規劃建築面積為 2685 萬平方米，環比下降18.8%，同比下降 27.0%；成交土地總價為 957 億元，環比上升5.7%，同比上升 8.4%；成交土地樓面均價為 3565 元/平方米，環比上升 30.2%，同比上升 48.5%；百城成交土地溢價率為7.43%，環比下降 17.0%，同比上升 22.0%。
投資建議:
十四五規劃建議中，對於房地產行業的態度還是比較中性的，延續了“房住不炒，因城施策”，保持了定力，同時也繼續考慮到各地的分化；同時提出“促進住房消費健康發展”，對於住房剛需是支持的，並且我們認為在未來城鎮化繼續推進的過程中，會有更多的剛改需求也會被支持。此次建議中花了較多筆墨對城市發展和都市羣建設進行表態，我們認為中國未來一定會形成多點開花的發展版圖，同時對於有帶動作用的示範城市來説，將會獲得較多的資源支持，這也會支撐當地的房地產市場需求，我們依然看好房地產行業發展的潛力。目前隨着融資環境轉向為“一企一策”，行業增長主體將更加頭部化。我們建議關注：1）各方面優勢較為突出的龍頭房企：金地集團，萬科 A，保利地產。2）銷售加速、報表修復的二線房企：金科股份，中南建設，中國金茂，世茂集團。
風險提示：
房地產調控持續升級；銷售超預期下行；融資持續收緊；利率上行。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
