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《大行報告》美銀證券:油股籲買中海油及中石油 迎油價反彈及冬季氣價上升
阿思達克 11-10 12:01
美銀證券發表報告表示,因OPEC+可能會調整減產協議,加上美藥廠宣稱旗下研發新冠疫苗有效性逾90%,布蘭特期油於本周一每桶價格抽高10%,錄近六個月以來最大單日幅。鑑於中海油(00883.HK)和中石油(00857.HK)與原油價格有高度敏感相關性,料國際油價每桶上漲1美元,將導致中海油和中石油明年盈利預測分別上漲5.9%或4.2%,一旦油價獲得支撐,料將觸發兩股股價迅速上升。

該行指,按中國海關數據顯示,10月份中國天然氣的表觀需求估計為24.8bcm(十億立方米),按年增長7.5%,今年前十個月的表觀需求為260.4bcm,按年增6.2%。隨著供暖高峰期臨近,中國的一些儲氣庫已開始從接近滿負荷的狀態抽出天然氣,中石化(00386.HK)高管在一次研討會上表示,中國冬季天然氣需求可能按年增長8%。該行認為,如此迅速增長的天然氣需求,肯定會在今年冬天支持中石油的天然氣銷售均價。

美銀證券指,於今年3月石油價格一度暴跌,石油公司股票被市場大量拋售,但是,從根本上看,在油價疲軟的環境下,中海油和中石油均對成本和資本支出進行了約束,並指中海油是成本最低的上游生產商,在今年上半年成功將其總成本按年減少11.3%至25.7美元/桶油當量,而中石油的今年首九個月運營支出按年亦減少10.7%。

美銀證券認為隨著中國國內需求的複蘇以及原油價格觸底反彈,行業情況會持續得到改善,喜愛中海油(予目標價10.5元)及中石油(予H股目標價3.6元),料中海油的資產負債表、成本紀律和可靠的項目渠道(超過30個新項目)可優於同行,而該行亦維持中石油H股「買入」評級,因其估值(市賬率僅0.4倍,相對歷史平均值為1.2倍,而國際同業更達1.5倍)具有吸引力。

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