華住集團-S(01179.HK):中國市場穩定恢復,給予“收集“評級,目標價338.00港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
目標價:338.00港元
2020 年 9 月 21 日,公司在香港聯合交易所成功完成二次上市。新上市的香港股票於 9 月 22 日在香港聯合交易所主板開始交易,股票代碼為 1179.HK。公司的美國存託憑證(每一份代表公司一股普通股)繼續在納斯達克上市交易。公司的已發行流通股總數上升約11.9%至約 3.205 億股。
我們預期 2020 至 2022 年淨營業收入將分別達到人民幣 102 億元、人民幣 159 億元和人民幣 179 億元,分別對應-9.2%、55.7%和 12.7%的增長。我們預期公司 2020 年虧損人民幣 24 億元,而 2021 年和 2022 年分別實現淨利潤人民幣 27 億元和人民幣 38 億元。我們預期 2020 年至 2022 年經調整息税折舊攤銷前利潤分別為人民幣 3.13 億元、人民幣46 億元和人民幣 58 億元,分別對應-90.7%、1,371.6%和 26.5%的增長。預期 2020 年至2022 年經調整全面攤薄每股收益分別為人民幣-8.484 元、人民幣 7.290 元和人民幣 8.899元。
我們給予公司“收集”的投資評級,目標價為338.00港元。隨隨着新冠肺炎疫情在中國被控制住,我們預期公司國內酒店將會受益。然而,由於中國以外地區新冠肺炎病例的反彈,我們預期公司在歐洲的德意志品牌酒店將在 2020 年第 4 季度受到負面影響並持續至 2021年上半年。我們新的目標價相對我們運用折現現金流方法得出的每股估值 420.26 港元有19.6%的折讓,相當於 19.4 倍 2021 年 EV/經調整 EBITDA 和 35.2 倍 2021 年市盈率。

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