運價漲漲漲！航運投資風口來了？
作者：於祥明
來源： 上海證券報
今日早盤，港口航運概念股異動，中遠海發拉昇觸板，中遠海特、中遠海控、寧波海運、招商輪船等紛紛跟漲。
很多人沒想到，航運集裝箱市場在今年的市場環境下還能逆風飛揚。
中國港口協會最新數據顯示，重點監測的沿海港口集裝箱業務進一步提速。10月份，八大樞紐港口集裝箱吞吐量同比增長11.1%，增速創今年新高。其中，外貿增長11.9%，較上月加快3.3個百分點；內貿同比增長9.0%，較上月明顯提速。
隨着，航運業進入傳統旺季，市場樂觀看多的情緒也愈來愈高漲。
航運價格逆風上漲
回想今年年初，受疫情影響，很多人預期全球貿易下滑，首當其衝會殃及航運業。
然而，出乎意料，自二季度以來，特別是今年7月份以來，航運價格逆風持續上漲，美西航線運價更是較年初漲了近三倍，最高升至3867美元/FEU（40英尺集裝箱）。
記者跟蹤發現，6個月時間內，中國出口至歐美的國際集裝箱海運價格翻番。受運價持續攀升影響，中國最大的集裝箱運輸企業中遠海控前三季度淨利增超八成，達到38.6億元。其中，第三季度淨利潤27.22億元，同比、環比漲幅均超兩倍。
中信建投分析師認為，歐美及其他海外地區疫情持續發酵使得當地經濟處於冰凍狀態，生產活動大幅受限，而本地製造與本地消費產生供給缺口，客觀上刺激外部貿易需求增加。這一問題並不會在短期內得到有效解決。
明年行情能否持續仍不明朗
“目前我司集裝箱訂單已排至明年春節前後。”中集集團近日回答投資者調研時直言，集裝箱市場近期需求有明顯增長。究其原因，一是受疫情影響，出口的集裝箱散落在全球各地，迴流不暢；二是國外政府出台疫情紓困計劃等財政刺激，導致短期內需求端（例如生活和辦公用品）超強表現，宅經濟火爆。
對於後市判斷，中集集團認為，儘管目前集裝箱需求端增長強勁，但後續仍需視疫情影響和貿易迴流情況而定，同時結合歐美財政刺激對貿易需求拉動的程度。總體看，判斷至少“缺箱”局面會持續一段時間，但明年全年情況並不十分明朗。
記者從各方機構瞭解到，市場對集運市場的樂觀預期有更深層次原因。
中金公司研究部董事總經理、交通運輸及基礎設施研究主管楊鑫認為，中遠海控三季度業績超預期，並且旺季過後的運價支撐水平有望超預期，為明年的長協合同談判奠定基礎。
她認為，基於目前的行業格局（集裝箱航運行業集中度大幅提升，前十大運力的份額佔比已從10年前低於60%，提高到83%），市場從長期角度可期待行業盈利中樞和估值水平的抬升。
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