《季绩前瞻》券商料友邦(01299.HK)第三季新业务价值跌29% 聚焦内地拓展步伐
券商摩根士丹利及瑞信均预料友邦保险(01299.HK)将於下周一(9日)开市前公布今年第三季新业务摘要，受到新冠疫情及本港离岸业务持续疲弱拖累，本网综合5间券商预测，按固定汇率(CER)计，友邦今年第三季录得新业务价值介乎6.66亿美元至7.4亿美元，较2019年同期9.8亿美元，按年下跌25%至32%，中位数7亿美元按年跌29%。
券商指将投资者关注香港业务复苏步伐、会否受到新冠疫情反覆波及，并留意公司在内地业务的拓展及增长表现，就友邦早前宣布友邦中国获中银保监批准在四川筹建分公司，市场亦会关注友邦中国最新在内地业务拓展计划及指引等
【香港存挑战 注内地步伐】
瑞信估计，友邦第三季新业务价值录7.24亿美元，按固定汇率计按年跌26%，对比市场同业预测跌介乎28%至30%，料友邦中国年化新保费季内表现良好，但估计本港业务续受挑战，毛利受压，但相信东亚南市场会有所改善。而高盛料友邦上季新业务价值(按固定汇率计)按年跌32%，料香港业务新业务价值按年下滑70%、估计内地市场新业务价值按年上升2%、料泰国、新加坡及马来西亚业务新业务价值按年各跌25%、22%及31%。
瑞银发表研究报告指，预期友邦第三季新业务价值将下跌30%，主要是因为香港及内地的关口仍未重开所致，虽料其今年第三季的业绩将意味复苏进度较预期慢，指投资者将关注香港业务复苏步伐、会否受到新冠疫情反覆所波及，及留意公司在内地业务的拓展及增长表现，及会否提及在内地业务的产品组合及「开门红」计划等。
摩根士丹利估计，友邦今年第三季新业务价值按年跌幅会由上半年跌37%，季内跌幅收窄至25%，料外汇因素影响轻微正面，估计受到年化新保费按年下滑13%及毛利率较低所拖累。
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本网综合5间券商预测，按固定汇率(CER)计，友邦今年第三季录得新业务价值介乎6.66亿美元至7.4亿美元，较2019年同期9.8亿美元，按年下跌25%至32%，中位数7亿美元按年跌29%。
券商│今年第三季新业务价值预测(按固定汇率(CER)计)│按年变幅
摩根士丹利│7.4亿美元│-24.5%
瑞信│7.24亿美元│-26.1%
摩根大通│7亿美元│-29%
瑞银│6.85亿美元│-30%
高盛│6.66亿美元│-32%
按友邦2019年第三季新业务价值9.8亿美元推算
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