中國太保(02601.HK)：創新鞏固發展基礎，壽險業務壓力猶存，維持“買入”評級，目標價31.7 4港元
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
目標價：31.7 4港元
中國太保前三季度保費收入同比增長 5.5%（太保壽險增長 0.2%，太保財險增長15%）。淨利潤同比下降 14.3%，主要由於去年税收優惠政策帶來的高基數。壽險業務仍然面臨壓力，但財險業務在第三季度保質提速。儘管疫情期和後疫情時代困難重重，但公司在數字化、“保險+健康/養老”等商業模式創新方面積極耕耘，取得顯著進步，將有助於其增強競爭力。
? 壽險業務仍然受到疫情餘震影響。前三季度代理人渠道首年期交保費收入同比下降 34.2%（1Q/2Q/3Q 的增速分別為-37.7%/-30.5%/-30.5%）。我們認為，第三季度新業務價值率可能有所提振，從而縮小新業務價值降幅，因為銷售了價值率更高的產品。太保壽險推出創新產品，整合保險與健康管理、養老服務等。
財險第三季度保費增長加速。前三季度，太保財險的車險/非車險業務保費收入分別同比增長 7.2%/30.9%，高於行業平均水平。特別的是，太保財險抓住新車銷售回暖機遇，加深渠道整合，三季度單季車險保費收入同比增長+14.3%，高於上半年的 8.7%。隨着宏觀經濟復甦，非車險保費增長也逐季加快，從上半年的 29.8%增長至三季度的 33.2%。我們認為財險業務的承保利潤率在第三季度保持穩定。
投資穩步推進。總投資收益率同比增長 0.4 個百分點至 5.5%，這可能是由於股權投資收益推動，儘管淨投資收益率同比微跌 0.2 個百分點至 4.6%。資產配置基本保持穩定，股票和權益類基金的份額比去年末上升 1 個百分點至9.3%。集團投資資產為人民幣 1.6 萬億元，較年末增長 12.7%。
制定五年大健康發展戰略。9 月，太保與上海瑞金醫院簽署協議，建立一家互聯網醫院。這是太保與一流資源合作，促進保險和醫療保健一體化業務模式所採取的舉措之一。
估值。我們下調了新業務價值和其他一些預測，以反映第三季度遜於預期的壽險保費增長。目標價下調至 31.74 港元。H 股當前股價相當於 0.46/0.42 倍2020/21 年預測每股內含價值。維持買入評級。
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