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新天綠色能源(00956.HK):2020年第三季度業績差於預期,成本增長過快是主因,給予“中性”評級,目標價2.05 港元
格隆匯 11-03 21:16

機構:中泰國際

評級:中性

目標價:2.05 港元

2020 年 第三季度轉盈為虧,營業總成本增長過快

公司昨晚公佈差於預期的 2020 年第三季度業績,錄得 568 萬人民幣虧損,去年同期股東淨利潤則為 8,417 萬人民幣。營業總成本增長過快是轉盈為虧的主因。季度收入僅同比上升 1.2%,但是營業總成本則增長 9.4%。2020 年首三季收入同比增長 2.8%至 83.2 億人民幣,同期股東淨利潤則同比下跌 10.8%至 9.4 億人民幣。

風電運營季度增長理想,天然氣則遜於預期

風電運營增長理想。風電發電量第三季度同比增長率達到16.8%,分別高於第一及第二季度的 1.6%及 7.8%增長率。今年首三季風電發電量因此同比上升 7.2%至 6,594 吉瓦時,相等於我們全年預測的 66.6%,去年同期實際比率則為 69.6%。天然氣運營增長則遜於預期。天然氣銷量第三季度同比增長率為 6.4%,分別低於第一及第二季度的 12.7%及 14.5%增長率。今年首三季天然氣銷量因此同比上升 11.6%至 2,394 百萬立方米,相等於我們全年預測的 64.7%,去年同期實際比率則為 66.3%。

降低盈利預測

基於第三季度業績,我們分別降低2020-2022 年股東淨利潤預測12.0%、13.7%、13.0%(見圖表 1)。

調低目標價,下調評級至“中性”

我們相應地將貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的目標價由 2.55 港元降低 19.6%至 2.05 港元(見圖表 2 和 3),這對應 5.0 倍 2021 年市盈率和 4.1%上升空間。我們因此將評級由“買入”下調至“中性”。

風險提示:(一)項目開發延誤、(二)應收賬款風險、(三)併網電價下跌。

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