星展料本港全年GDP跌7% 關口未開通將有更多公司裁員或結業
星展銀行(香港)經濟研究部經濟師謝家曦在網上會議表示,香港在嚴格的社交距離限制措施下,第二季經濟按年跌9%。現時,該行預期第三季及第四季的GDP分別收縮5.6%及4.1%。全年的GDP預測由原來的跌4%,進一步下調至跌7%。
他又指,第三季本港失業率由6至8月份的6.1%升至6.4%,而最近國泰航空(00293.HK)的裁員將會導致整體失業率上升0.1個百分點。若香港的關口仍未開通的話,零售及勞工市場僅會出現短暫的改善,因為旅客對本地零售消費的佔比達3成,而本地市民僅能支持7成零售消費。雖然最近香港與新加坡達成「旅遊氣泡」協議,但新加坡遊客僅佔本地旅客消費1.5%。他相信,若在明年初至明年中,香港關口仍未開放的話,會有更多公司需要裁員或結業。
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