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《专题》券商对腾讯(00700.HK)金融科技业务未来盈利预测(表)
阿思达克 10-27 16:09
中信证券9月下旬发表报告,列出腾讯(00700.HK)旗下金融科技业务2019年至2021年综合测算:

腾讯旗下金融科技业务预测:

业务分项│2019年│2020年预测│2021年预测

总收入│845亿元(按年+39%)│1,087亿元(按年+29%)│1,382亿元(按年+27%)

-支付业务收入│784亿元│989亿元│1,246亿元

-理财通业务收入│24亿元│34.5亿元│43.9亿元

-信贷业务收入│37.5亿元│63亿元│92亿元

毛利润│283亿元(按年+51%)│426亿元(按年+51%)│587亿元(按年+38%)

运营利润│114亿元(按年+72%)│209亿元(按年+83%)│311亿元(按年+49%)

毛利率│33%│39%│42%

运营费用率│20%│20%│20%

营业利润率│13.2%│19.1%│22.6%

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对比腾讯各业务总体预测:

业务分项│2019年│2020年预测│2021年预测

总收入│3,773亿元(按年+20.7%)│4,816亿元(按年+27.6%)│5,820亿元(按年+20.8%)

纯利│933亿元(按年+18.6%)│1,207亿元(按年升29.4%)│1,438亿元(按年+19.1%)

非通用会计准则纯利│944亿元(按年+21.8%)│1,217亿元(按年+29%)│1,463亿元(按年+20%)

以上货币单位均为人民币

资料来源:公司财务、艾瑞谘询、中信证券研究所测算

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中信证券亦列出对腾讯支付交易额2019年至2021年预测及结构分解

预测分项│2019年│2020年│2021年

国内第三方移动支付市场预测│205万亿│228万亿│260万亿

-腾讯支付份额占比预测│40%│41%│42%

各类交易额占比

预测分项│2019年│2020年│2021年

社交支付│48%│46%│44%

-红包及转账│42%│39%│37%

-取现│7%│7%│7%

商户支付│52%│54%│56%

以上货币单位均为人民币

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此外,中信证券亦列出对腾讯旗下理财通业务2019年至2021年收入预测

预测分项│2019年│2020年│2021年

理财通管理资产规模(AUM)预测│1万亿元│1.3万亿元│1.6万亿元

理财通AUM增速预测│+67%│+30%│+25%

理财通费率│0.3%│0.3%│0.3%

理财通收入预测│24亿元│34.5亿元│43.9亿元

以上货币单位均为人民币

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中信证券亦列出对腾讯旗下信贷业务2019年至2021年收入预测:

预测分项│2019年│2020年│2021年

微粒贷余额预测│3,000亿元│4,500亿元│5,000亿元

微信分付余额│0元│400亿元│800亿元

微粒贷收入费率│1.5%│1.5%│1.5%

微信分付收入费率│3.5%│3.5%│3.5%

信贷业务收入合计│37.5亿元│63.25亿元│92.25亿元

以上货币单位均为人民币

资料来源:公司报、艾瑞谘询、中信证券研究部预测

(wl/t)

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